ALL:NYSEAllstate Corporation (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time
$216.60
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Allstate is trading above its 20‑day (216.9), 50‑day (212.8) and 200‑day (206.8) moving averages, confirming a bullish price direction despite a marginally bearish MACD histogram and a neutral RSI near 51. The stock sits comfortably above the identified support at 209.5 and below the resistance at 227.6, with stable volume and an exceptionally low beta indicating limited market‑wide volatility, while the 30‑day volatility of roughly 22 % and an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment suggest upside potential without excessive risk.
Fundamentally, Allstate’s trailing PE of under 5 is dramatically lower than the industry average of ~16.8, and its ROE of over 45 % together with robust operating and free cash flow underscores strong profitability. The dividend payout ratio is a modest ~9 %, supporting a sustainable dividend yield near 2 %, and a DCF‑derived fair value of over $700 points to a sizable undervaluation. Recent Q1 earnings beat, an upgraded price target to $268 and a quarterly dividend increase further reinforce confidence in continued performance.
Fundamentally, Allstate’s trailing PE of under 5 is dramatically lower than the industry average of ~16.8, and its ROE of over 45 % together with robust operating and free cash flow underscores strong profitability. The dividend payout ratio is a modest ~9 %, supporting a sustainable dividend yield near 2 %, and a DCF‑derived fair value of over $700 points to a sizable undervaluation. Recent Q1 earnings beat, an upgraded price target to $268 and a quarterly dividend increase further reinforce confidence in continued performance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price positioned above key moving averages with clear support
- Recent earnings beat and raised analyst target
- Attractive valuation relative to peers
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant undervaluation indicated by DCF fair value
- Strong cash generation and low dividend payout ratio
- Sustained bullish technical trend and low beta
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- High ROE and durable profitability in the insurance sector
- Stable, sustainable dividend and low payout risk
- Long‑term growth prospects from diversified product lines and strong balance sheet
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.00%
Profit Margin17.81%
P/E Ratio4.8
ROE45.22%
ROA7.52%
Debt/Equity23.72
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$11.7B
Free Cash Flow$12.4B
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI50.8
Support$209.51
Resistance$227.62
MA 20$216.87
MA 50$212.76
MA 200$206.85
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value$707.02
Target Price$241.86
Upside/Downside11.66%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.99%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.07
Volatility21.78%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.