ALL:ASXAristocrat Leisure Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time
A$54.95
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Aristocrat Leisure is trading near a key technical resistance while technical momentum remains bullish, as indicated by a positive MACD histogram and a bullish MACD crossover. The RSI is perched in the high range, signalling potential overbought conditions that could cap short‑term upside. Fundamentals show a solid operating margin and strong cash generation, supporting a healthy dividend that appears sustainable given the modest payout ratio. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive with a strong‑buy consensus, and the target price median sits above the current level, suggesting expectations for further appreciation. However, the discounted cash flow model places fair value well below the market price, flagging a valuation stretch.
Overall, the stock combines robust earnings quality and dividend reliability with a valuation premium that warrants cautious positioning, especially until price momentum eases from overbought levels.
Overall, the stock combines robust earnings quality and dividend reliability with a valuation premium that warrants cautious positioning, especially until price momentum eases from overbought levels.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD momentum
- RSI indicating overbought conditions
- Price approaching technical resistance
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong operating margins and cash flow
- Positive earnings outlook with forward earnings growth
- Analyst consensus of strong‑buy
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Durable gaming franchise with expanding online presence
- Sustainable dividend supported by cash generation
- Strategic positioning in a growing regulated gambling market
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.20%
Profit Margin23.46%
P/E Ratio23.2
ROE22.03%
ROA11.31%
Debt/Equity30.65
P/B Ratio5.4
Op. Cash FlowA$2.0B
Free Cash FlowA$913.6M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI68.0
SupportA$48.00
ResistanceA$54.95
MA 20A$51.69
MA 50A$49.72
MA 200A$55.54
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
Fair ValueA$17.90
Target PriceA$63.04
Upside/Downside14.72%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.80%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.32
Volatility42.68%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.