AGL:ASXAGL Energy Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time
A$8.56
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
AGL is trading at $8.56, well below its 20‑day (9.06), 50‑day (9.37) and 200‑day (9.16) SMAs, with the MACD line under its signal and an RSI of 32 indicating oversold conditions but still a bearish technical stance; the stock sits just above a firm support at $8.5 and faces resistance near $9.71, while 30‑day volatility is high at 26% and beta is effectively neutral at –0.03.
Fundamentally, the company posted a –1.16% profit margin, a 94.7% debt‑to‑equity ratio and a payout ratio of 177%, making the 5.72% dividend yield appear unsustainable; forward earnings are modest (forward PE 9.9 versus industry 21.5) and a DCF model values AGL at roughly $6.07, suggesting the market price is overstated despite recent guidance upgrades that lift FY‑26 underlying profit to $610‑$680 million.
Fundamentally, the company posted a –1.16% profit margin, a 94.7% debt‑to‑equity ratio and a payout ratio of 177%, making the 5.72% dividend yield appear unsustainable; forward earnings are modest (forward PE 9.9 versus industry 21.5) and a DCF model values AGL at roughly $6.07, suggesting the market price is overstated despite recent guidance upgrades that lift FY‑26 underlying profit to $610‑$680 million.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price below all major moving averages
- Bearish MACD and oversold RSI without clear reversal
- High debt load and unsustainable dividend payout
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Earnings guidance upgrade improves profit outlook
- Valuation still above DCF fair value
- Sector stability but ongoing regulatory pressure
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Transition to renewable assets could enhance cash flow
- Potential price correction toward DCF valuation
- Long‑term utility demand remains resilient
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.90%
Profit Margin-1.16%
P/E Ratio9.9
ROE-3.32%
ROA1.97%
Debt/Equity94.74
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash FlowA$892.0M
Free Cash FlowA$-503500000
Industry P/E21.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI32.3
SupportA$8.50
ResistanceA$9.71
MA 20A$9.06
MA 50A$9.37
MA 200A$9.16
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index94.07
Valuation
Fair ValueA$6.07
Target PriceA$10.84
Upside/Downside26.60%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.72%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.03
Volatility26.07%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.