AEM:TSXAgnico Eagle Mines Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
CA$305.64
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
AEM is trading at C$305.64, roughly 9% below its DCF‑derived fair value of C$319.93, indicating an immediate valuation cushion. The stock sits above its 50‑day SMA (C$285.26) but just under the 20‑day SMA (C$310.89), while the 200‑day SMA (C$223.08) remains well beneath the price, supporting a longer‑term bullish bias. Technical momentum is mixed: RSI at 50.7 signals a neutral stance, the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, and volatility is elevated at 64% over the past 30 days, suggesting short‑term price swings.
Fundamentally, AEM posted a 60% revenue surge, maintains a robust gross margin of 71.9% and operating margin of 64.7%, and generates over C$4.1 bn in free cash flow. The balance sheet is strong with C$2.87 bn cash versus C$0.32 bn debt, and a modest payout ratio of 18% underpins dividend sustainability. Recent strategic moves—including the acquisition of Vior’s Québec projects and additional investment in Maple Gold—expand its resource base and reinforce a growth‑oriented narrative.
Fundamentally, AEM posted a 60% revenue surge, maintains a robust gross margin of 71.9% and operating margin of 64.7%, and generates over C$4.1 bn in free cash flow. The balance sheet is strong with C$2.87 bn cash versus C$0.32 bn debt, and a modest payout ratio of 18% underpins dividend sustainability. Recent strategic moves—including the acquisition of Vior’s Québec projects and additional investment in Maple Gold—expand its resource base and reinforce a growth‑oriented narrative.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering near the 20‑day SMA and a bearish MACD signal
- Elevated 30‑day volatility that could trigger range‑bound moves
- Upcoming closure of the Vior acquisition adding near‑term uncertainty
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to DCF and analyst target median of C$344.79
- Strong revenue growth (60%) and high operating margins
- Strategic expansion through Québec projects and Maple Gold investment
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Robust free cash flow and low debt supporting financial resilience
- Gold’s defensive profile and AEM’s diversified geographic footprint
- Sustainable dividend policy with a low payout ratio and solid ROE
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth60.30%
Profit Margin37.47%
P/E Ratio24.7
ROE19.58%
ROA13.22%
Debt/Equity1.30
P/B Ratio4.5
Op. Cash FlowCA$6.8B
Free Cash FlowCA$4.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI50.7
SupportCA$271.46
ResistanceCA$348.94
MA 20CA$310.89
MA 50CA$285.26
MA 200CA$223.08
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index75.89
Valuation
Fair ValueCA$319.93
Target PriceCA$333.50
Upside/Downside9.12%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.82%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.18
Volatility64.68%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.