ADM:NYSEArcher-Daniels-Midland Company Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-16 - not real-time
$80.40
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Archer‑Daniels‑Midland is trading at $80.4, comfortably above its 20‑day (75.4), 50‑day (72.4) and 200‑day (64.5) moving averages, with a bullish RSI of 65.4 and a MACD histogram still positive, while volume is on an up‑trend, suggesting short‑term momentum remains intact.
However, the DCF‑derived fair value of $25.5 and a negative upside/downside of –7.8% highlight a significant valuation gap, reinforced by a trailing P/E of 35.9 versus a forward P/E of 15.5. The dividend yield of 2.59% is backed by a very high payout ratio (≈91%), raising concerns about sustainability. Recent news shows UBS upgraded the price target to $90 and a raised FY EPS guidance to $4.15‑$4.70, and Q1 earnings beat expectations, providing a catalyst but not enough to offset the overvaluation warning.
However, the DCF‑derived fair value of $25.5 and a negative upside/downside of –7.8% highlight a significant valuation gap, reinforced by a trailing P/E of 35.9 versus a forward P/E of 15.5. The dividend yield of 2.59% is backed by a very high payout ratio (≈91%), raising concerns about sustainability. Recent news shows UBS upgraded the price target to $90 and a raised FY EPS guidance to $4.15‑$4.70, and Q1 earnings beat expectations, providing a catalyst but not enough to offset the overvaluation warning.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above key moving averages and bullish momentum indicators
- Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
- Upcoming earnings release could add volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Raised EPS guidance to $4.15‑$4.70 and UBS target of $90
- Forward P/E compression to 15.5 indicating improved earnings outlook
- Increasing volume supporting a potential price rally
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Modest revenue growth (1.6% YoY) and thin margins
- High dividend payout ratio challenging sustainability
- Stable cash flow generation but persistent overvaluation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth1.60%
Profit Margin1.34%
P/E Ratio35.9
ROE4.77%
ROA1.67%
Debt/Equity46.13
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$5.9B
Free Cash Flow$1.6B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI65.5
Support$67.30
Resistance$83.10
MA 20$75.40
MA 50$72.43
MA 200$64.46
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.52
Valuation
Fair Value$25.52
Target Price$74.10
Upside/Downside-7.84%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.59%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.05
Volatility29.02%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.