ABEV3:BMFBOVESPAAmbev SA Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-14 - not real-time
R$15.83
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
Ambev trades below its discounted cash‑flow estimate, offering a modest upside while maintaining a solid defensive profile. The stock sits under both the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages and the MACD has turned bearish, suggesting limited near‑term price momentum, yet the low beta and stable cash flows underpin a resilient outlook.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong margins, robust free cash flow and a dividend yield above one percent supported by a payout ratio that remains sustainable. Combined with a low‑volatility environment and a market‑cap that assures ample liquidity, the longer horizon appears attractive for value‑oriented investors.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong margins, robust free cash flow and a dividend yield above one percent supported by a payout ratio that remains sustainable. Combined with a low‑volatility environment and a market‑cap that assures ample liquidity, the longer horizon appears attractive for value‑oriented investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price is below the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs
- Bearish MACD histogram
- Decreasing volume trend
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong operating and free cash flow generation
- Dividend yield above 1% with a sustainable payout
- Current price modestly below DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Market leadership in a consumer‑defensive beverage segment
- Low beta indicating limited systematic risk
- Consistent dividend policy and solid balance‑sheet strength
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.10%
Profit Margin17.66%
P/E Ratio16.0
ROE17.25%
ROA9.78%
Debt/Equity3.42
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash FlowR$26.4B
Free Cash FlowR$18.2B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI43.0
SupportR$0.00
ResistanceR$16.85
MA 20R$16.15
MA 50R$16.19
MA 200R$14.65
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.79
Valuation
Fair ValueR$16.35
Target PriceR$16.18
Upside/Downside2.21%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.14%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.24
Volatility18.03%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.