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AAPL:NASDAQApple Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$297.84

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Apple (AAPL) is trading at $297.84, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 282.79 and 50‑day SMA of 266.99, while still below the 52‑week high of $303.20, indicating a bullish price trend. Technical momentum is strong with a MACD bullish crossover (line 9.39 above signal 8.05) and an RSI of 71.35, signaling near‑overbought conditions that could prompt a short‑term pull‑back toward the support zone around $265.07. The stock’s volatility over the past 30 days is high at 23.75% but its beta of 0.97 suggests market‑aligned risk. Fundamentals remain robust: revenue grew 16.6% YoY to $451.4 B, gross margin sits at 47.9%, and free cash flow exceeds $101 B, supporting a low payout ratio of 12.6% and a sustainable dividend yield of 0.36%. Valuation metrics show a forward PE of 31 versus an industry average of 38, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $176 implies a modest upside of about 3.4% relative to current pricing. Recent material news – a record‑breaking iPhone quarter, services revenue expansion, and a dividend payout scheduled for May 14 – reinforce the growth narrative, while high‑profile endorsements (e.g., George Soros) add sentiment strength. Overall, the confluence of strong earnings, resilient cash generation, and bullish technicals supports a positive outlook, though the elevated short‑term RSI and proximity to resistance warrant cautious positioning.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and price above all major SMAs
  • RSI in overbought territory suggesting possible pull‑back
  • Close to resistance level at $303.20

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue (+16.6%) and EPS growth (+22%)
  • Robust free cash flow and low dividend payout ratio
  • Forward PE below industry average and analyst consensus buy

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Durable ecosystem with expanding services revenue
  • Sustained cash generation supporting dividend and share buybacks
  • Competitive moat and continued innovation (iPhone 17, Vision Pro)

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth16.60%
Profit Margin27.15%
P/E Ratio36.1
ROE141.47%
ROA26.23%
Debt/Equity79.55
P/B Ratio41.0
Op. Cash Flow$140.2B
Free Cash Flow$101.1B
Industry P/E38.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI71.4
Support$265.07
Resistance$303.20
MA 20$282.79
MA 50$267.00
MA 200$259.58
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Fair Value$176.18
Target Price$308.07
Upside/Downside3.43%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.36%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.97
Volatility23.75%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.