AAL:LSE

Anglo American trades at 3,127 GBp, sitting below its 20‑day SMA (3,560) but above the 200‑day SMA (2,731), indicating a long‑term uptrend yet short‑term weakness. The 14‑day RSI of 34 signals oversold conditions, while a bearish MACD histogram of –69 supports a near‑term downside bias. Volume is increasing and the price holds just above the identified support at 3,002, with resistance near 3,877. Volatility is elevated at 45% over the past month and beta under 1 points to modest market sensitivity. The DCF model suggests a fair value around 9,407 GBp, implying a potential upside of over 200% versus the current level, though the forward P/E of 18.8 is modest.
Fundamentals are mixed – a 17.5% revenue growth year‑over‑year is offset by a negative profit margin and a trailing EPS of –0.79, yet forward EPS is projected at 1.66, indicating a turnaround. The company carries high leverage (debt‑to‑equity 65.5) and a dividend yield of 0.54% with an unsustainable payout ratio above 500%, reflected in the recent dividend cut. Material news highlights a 10% drop in copper output, a cut to 2026 guidance, and a downgrade by JP Morgan, but also the advancing Anglo‑Tech merger with Teck, which could unlock significant synergies. Overall, the stock appears heavily discounted relative to intrinsic models but faces short‑term execution and sector headwinds.