AAF:LSEAirtel Africa Plc Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
£332.60
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Airtel Africa Plc’s share price of ~£332 sits below its 20‑day SMA (≈£355) and 50‑day SMA (≈£358) but above the 200‑day SMA (≈£307), indicating short‑term bearish pressure while longer‑term sentiment remains modestly positive.
The RSI of 44 and a bearish MACD histogram (‑4.9) reinforce a near‑term downside bias, yet the Fear‑Greed Index at 91.6 signals market euphoria and a potential upside to the 30‑day resistance near £436.
Fundamentally the company posts a 32.5% revenue surge, 67% gross margin and 33% operating margin, with free cash flow of £1.17 bn comfortably covering its £6.4 bn debt load, though the debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~184× flags leverage risk.
Dividend yield of 1.59% is supported by a low payout ratio (≈37%), making the dividend stream sustainable.
Overall, the stock appears substantially undervalued against a DCF fair‑value of £984, suggesting a sizable upside opportunity despite elevated volatility (≈75% 30‑day) and leverage concerns.
The RSI of 44 and a bearish MACD histogram (‑4.9) reinforce a near‑term downside bias, yet the Fear‑Greed Index at 91.6 signals market euphoria and a potential upside to the 30‑day resistance near £436.
Fundamentally the company posts a 32.5% revenue surge, 67% gross margin and 33% operating margin, with free cash flow of £1.17 bn comfortably covering its £6.4 bn debt load, though the debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~184× flags leverage risk.
Dividend yield of 1.59% is supported by a low payout ratio (≈37%), making the dividend stream sustainable.
Overall, the stock appears substantially undervalued against a DCF fair‑value of £984, suggesting a sizable upside opportunity despite elevated volatility (≈75% 30‑day) and leverage concerns.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- near‑term MACD bearish momentum
- price hovering just above support
- elevated 30‑day volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- robust 32% YoY revenue growth
- strong operating cash flow exceeding debt service
- undervalued DCF fair value versus market price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- sustained high gross and operating margins
- low dividend payout ratio indicating capacity to maintain
- strategic presence across multiple African markets despite regulatory headwinds
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth32.50%
Profit Margin10.54%
P/E Ratio23.8
ROE25.96%
ROA10.17%
Debt/Equity183.83
P/B Ratio5.2
Op. Cash Flow£3.2B
Free Cash Flow£1.2B
Industry P/E17.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI43.9
Support£308.00
Resistance£436.20
MA 20£355.00
MA 50£358.28
MA 200£307.22
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value£984.34
Target Price£373.30
Upside/Downside12.24%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.59%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.32
Volatility75.30%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.