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9988:HKEXAlibaba Group Holding Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-09-10 - not real-time

HK$107.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The moving-average structure behind Alibaba Group Holding Limited is neutral at HKD 107.00, with no clear ordering between short and long averages. The last 30 days have lost 4.3%. Relative strength is 37.3 — approaching oversold — and the MACD signal is bearish. Recent trading has carved out support near HKD 105.20 and resistance around HKD 129.80.
Multiples put this in fair territory at a P/E of 24.7. Sell-side targets cluster 64.5% above the current quote. Revenue is growing at 8.6% on a 7.0% profit margin. The 0.94% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 7 — elevated. With 30-day volatility of 46.1%, a beta of 0.73 and a maximum drawdown of 51.6%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 92 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 1/10.

Top Market Events

Updated Jun 18, 2026 0 HONG KONG-- BUSINESS WIRE --Jun 18, 2026-- Alibaba Group Holding Limited NYSE: BABA and HKEX:...The latest company information, including net asset values, performance, holding & sectors weighting, changes in voting...The latest company information, including net asset values, performance, holding & sectors weighting, changes in voting...

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • Trading below the 200-day average of 132.08
  • MACD momentum is negative
  • 30-day volatility of 46.1%

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 2/10

Key Factors

  • Trading below the 200-day average of 132.08
  • Analyst targets imply +64.5% versus the current price
  • 30-day volatility of 46.1%

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 1/10

Key Factors

  • Analyst targets imply +64.5% versus the current price
  • Negative free cash flow
  • P/E ratio of 24.7

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.60%
Profit Margin7.04%
P/E Ratio24.7
ROE6.36%
ROA1.56%
Debt/Equity23.93
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash FlowHK$78.5B
Free Cash FlowHK$-82644123648

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI37.3
SupportHK$105.20
ResistanceHK$129.80
MA 20HK$115.14
MA 50HK$114.83
MA 200HK$132.08
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.21

Valuation

Fair ValueHK$56.08
Target PriceHK$176.03
Upside/Downside64.51%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.94%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.73
Volatility46.06%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.