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9987:TSESuzuken Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-10 - not real-time

HK$337.20

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Yum China is trading at HKD 337.2, just above its 20‑day SMA of ~332 but still below the 50‑day (~346) and 200‑day (~370) averages, indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a longer‑term downtrend. The MACD histogram has turned positive and the signal line is bullish, while the RSI hovers around 51, suggesting neutral momentum and room for a modest bounce. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid growth with 9.7% revenue expansion, a 16% ROE, and a comfortable dividend yield of 2.7% backed by a 38% payout ratio and strong free cash flow. The balance sheet is solid, featuring a debt‑to‑equity of 38% and net cash after debt of roughly HKD 0.9 bn. Strategically, the $1.2 bn cash acquisition of the Pizza Hut brand in Mainland China removes royalty expenses and provides full control to accelerate brand rollout, a catalyst expected to materialise in Q3 2026. Combined with a low beta of 0.08 and a 30‑day volatility of 24%, the stock appears undervalued—DCF indicates a fair value far above the current price, implying ~40% upside. Overall, the blend of attractive valuation, dividend sustainability, and a transformative acquisition supports a positive outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Positive MACD crossover indicating near‑term momentum shift
  • Support level near HKD 310 providing downside cushion
  • Upcoming Pizza Hut acquisition expected to close in Q3

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Full ownership of Pizza Hut will eliminate royalty fees and boost margins
  • Revenue growth of ~10% and expanding store footprint
  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value with ~40% upside potential

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend yield of 2.7% supported by strong cash flow
  • Robust ROE and low leverage enhancing financial resilience
  • Strategic brand control positioning Yum China for continued market leadership in China

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.70%
Profit Margin7.83%
P/E Ratio16.5
ROE16.29%
ROA7.84%
Debt/Equity38.01
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash FlowHK$1.6B
Free Cash FlowHK$788.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI50.8
SupportHK$310.60
ResistanceHK$352.20
MA 20HK$332.29
MA 50HK$346.47
MA 200HK$369.87
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.38

Valuation

Fair ValueHK$42.45
Target PriceHK$474.49
Upside/Downside40.71%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.72%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.08
Volatility24.35%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.