9064:TSEYamato Holdings Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time
¥1,785.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Yamato Holdings is trading at ¥1,785, just below its 20‑day SMA of ¥1,786.85 and beneath the 50‑day SMA of ¥1,793.78, indicating a short‑term price weakness despite a bullish MACD (histogram +1.53) and a neutral RSI at 48.7. The stock exhibits high recent volatility (~27% 30‑day) but a very low beta (~0.25), suggesting price swings are driven more by company‑specific factors than broad market moves.
Fundamentally, the company appears overvalued with a trailing PE of 41.5 versus an industry average of 30.6 and a current price well above the DCF fair value of ¥1,515. Forward earnings look attractive (forward PE 16.5, EPS forecast jumping from ¥43 to ¥108), yet profitability remains weak (operating margin –5.6%) and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability.
Fundamentally, the company appears overvalued with a trailing PE of 41.5 versus an industry average of 30.6 and a current price well above the DCF fair value of ¥1,515. Forward earnings look attractive (forward PE 16.5, EPS forecast jumping from ¥43 to ¥108), yet profitability remains weak (operating margin –5.6%) and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just below short‑term moving averages
- Bullish MACD but overall bearish trend
- High short‑term volatility with limited upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward PE of 16.5 suggests earnings expansion
- Significant EPS upside potential (¥43 to ¥108)
- Stable cash generation despite current operating loss
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Current price far exceeds DCF fair value
- Unsustainable dividend payout (>100% of earnings)
- Weak profitability and high max drawdown (~33%)
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.10%
Profit Margin0.73%
P/E Ratio41.5
ROE2.32%
ROA0.73%
Debt/Equity33.66
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow¥72.2B
Free Cash Flow¥30.1B
Industry P/E30.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI48.7
Support¥1,718.00
Resistance¥1,839.00
MA 20¥1,786.85
MA 50¥1,793.78
MA 200¥2,070.87
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value¥1,514.86
Target Price¥1,805.00
Upside/Downside1.12%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.58%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.25
Volatility27.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.