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9020:TSEEast Japan Railway Company Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-29 - not real-time

¥3,446.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

East Japan Railway Company trades at ¥3,446, well below the DCF‑derived fair value of ¥5,941, implying an upside of roughly 17 % and positioning the stock as undervalued. Its price‑to‑earnings multiple of 15.7 is less than half the industry average of 31.5, while the dividend yield of 2.48 % and a modest payout ratio of 34 % support income‑focused investors. Revenue growth of 11 % and an operating margin of 7.7 % demonstrate solid top‑line momentum, though free cash flow remains negative and the debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeds 150 %, flagging balance‑sheet pressure.
Technically, the 20‑day SMA sits above the current price and the 200‑day SMA at ¥3,730 reinforces a bearish trend, yet the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI hovers near 52, suggesting limited downside and potential for a short‑term bounce. Volume has been tapering, and beta is slightly negative, indicating limited correlation with broader market moves, while 30‑day volatility of 23 % adds to the risk profile. Overall, the combination of attractive valuation, steady dividend, and modest growth supports a buy stance for medium‑ to long‑term horizons, while caution is warranted in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish price trend with price below 20‑day SMA
  • Positive MACD histogram indicating potential bounce
  • Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and industry PE
  • Solid revenue growth and attractive dividend yield
  • Improving earnings outlook with forward EPS near current levels

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term demand for rail transport in Japan
  • Sustainable dividend supported by operating cash flow
  • Significant upside potential implied by valuation gap

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth10.90%
Profit Margin8.04%
P/E Ratio15.7
ROE8.39%
ROA2.47%
Debt/Equity158.82
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow¥765.1B
Free Cash Flow¥-216981504000
Industry P/E31.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI51.9
Support¥3,243.00
Resistance¥3,513.00
MA 20¥3,376.60
MA 50¥3,496.54
MA 200¥3,730.13
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.55

Valuation

Fair Value¥5,941.45
Target Price¥4,027.50
Upside/Downside16.87%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.48%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.24
Volatility23.63%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.