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8604:TSENomura Holdings, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

¥1,218.50

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Nomura Holdings trades well below its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, with a bearish MACD histogram and an RSI hovering in the mid‑30s, suggesting short‑term downside pressure but also a potential oversold condition. Fundamentally, the stock appears cheap – its price‑to‑earnings ratio sits far beneath the industry average and the price‑to‑book is under one, indicating a valuation advantage. The company delivers solid profitability margins and a near‑10% revenue growth rate, while offering a high dividend yield of over 4% with a moderate payout ratio, pointing to dividend sustainability. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, reflected in an extreme debt‑to‑equity ratio, which introduces a notable financial risk despite a massive cash reserve. Market sentiment is currently in an “Extreme Greed” phase, and analyst forecasts target prices roughly 25% above the current level, implying upside potential. Overall, the blend of undervalued pricing, attractive yield, and growth prospects is tempered by leverage and technical weakness.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and price below short‑term averages
  • Potential oversold RSI offering a bounce
  • Attractive dividend yield providing income support

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation metrics relative to peers
  • Strong revenue growth and high profit margins
  • Sustainable dividend with room for payout increase

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Robust cash reserves offsetting high leverage
  • Consistent earnings generation and dividend stability
  • Strategic position in capital markets with global client base

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.90%
Profit Margin17.63%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE9.93%
ROA0.61%
Debt/Equity895.37
P/B Ratio1.0
Industry P/E17.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI36.3
Support¥1,145.00
Resistance¥1,481.50
MA 20¥1,365.18
MA 50¥1,378.30
MA 200¥1,122.42
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index80.86

Valuation

Target Price¥1,531.25
Upside/Downside25.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.57%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.71
Volatility49.53%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.