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8601:TSEDaiwa Securities Group Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time

¥1,467.00

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Daiwa Securities Group trades at a PE of 11.8, well below the industry average of 16.7, and offers a 4.77% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 51.5%, indicating attractive income potential. Recent earnings releases show record profits and a modest 1.7% rise in net operating revenues, reinforcing the company's strong gross margin of 80% and solid profitability. The stock is currently priced at 1,467 JPY, sitting just above the identified support level of 1,412.5 JPY but below the 20‑day SMA (1,496.8 JPY) and 50‑day SMA (1,502.3 JPY), suggesting short‑term pressure.
Technical indicators are mixed: the MACD is bearish, the RSI sits near neutral at 45, and volatility is elevated at 31.6% over 30 days, yet the beta of 0.55 points to lower systematic risk. With increasing volume, a modest upside of roughly 5‑6% to the DCF fair value, and a strong cash position that offsets high debt, the overall risk profile is low‑to‑moderate, supporting a buy stance for medium to long horizons while recommending a hold in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and price below short‑term SMAs
  • High dividend yield providing downside cushion
  • Recent earnings beat confirming earnings momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation with PE advantage over peers
  • Sustainable dividend supporting total return
  • Modest upside to DCF fair value and improving volume trends

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong cash generation and net cash position
  • Consistent profitability and high margins
  • Stable sector fundamentals and low systematic risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth77.70%
Profit Margin20.24%
P/E Ratio11.8
ROE9.59%
ROA0.51%
Debt/Equity1206.40
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow¥439.0B
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI45.1
Support¥1,412.50
Resistance¥1,599.00
MA 20¥1,496.83
MA 50¥1,502.29
MA 200¥1,344.79
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Fair Value¥10,990.52
Target Price¥1,550.00
Upside/Downside5.66%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.77%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.55
Volatility31.65%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.