8591:TSEORIX Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time
¥5,778.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
ORIX Corporation is trading at ¥5,778, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (¥5,289) and 50‑day SMA (¥5,004), confirming a sustained bullish momentum. The 14‑day RSI of 67 suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory, while a bullish MACD histogram (+¥67) reinforces short‑term upside potential. Current price sits near the identified resistance of ¥6,060, with a solid support level at ¥4,768, indicating a clear price corridor for the coming weeks.
Fundamentally, the company posted a 28% revenue growth year‑over‑year and maintains a respectable gross margin of 43%, yet its free cash flow is negative, offset by strong operating cash flow. A forward PE of 15.5 is below the industry average of 16.7, and the dividend yield of 2.7% with a payout ratio under 40% points to a sustainable income stream. However, the debt‑to‑equity ratio of 141% and a high leverage profile introduce balance‑sheet risk, while the volatility of 44% over the past month signals price swings that could test investors’ patience.
Fundamentally, the company posted a 28% revenue growth year‑over‑year and maintains a respectable gross margin of 43%, yet its free cash flow is negative, offset by strong operating cash flow. A forward PE of 15.5 is below the industry average of 16.7, and the dividend yield of 2.7% with a payout ratio under 40% points to a sustainable income stream. However, the debt‑to‑equity ratio of 141% and a high leverage profile introduce balance‑sheet risk, while the volatility of 44% over the past month signals price swings that could test investors’ patience.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical alignment with SMA and MACD
- Proximity to resistance level limiting upside
- Elevated 30‑day volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and solid margins
- Attractive valuation relative to industry PE
- Sustainable dividend yield with low payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Diversified financial services footprint across regions
- Consistent cash‑flow generation despite free‑cash‑flow gap
- Balanced risk from low beta and robust market cap
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth28.00%
Profit Margin13.43%
P/E Ratio14.5
ROE10.42%
ROA2.40%
Debt/Equity141.40
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow¥1369.6B
Free Cash Flow¥-1643793743872
Industry P/E16.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI67.3
Support¥4,768.00
Resistance¥6,060.00
MA 20¥5,289.05
MA 50¥5,003.82
MA 200¥4,390.99
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61
Valuation
Fair Value¥25,868.29
Target Price¥5,534.44
Upside/Downside-4.22%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.70%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.42
Volatility44.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.