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8591:TSEORIX Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time

¥5,778.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

ORIX Corporation is trading at ¥5,778, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (¥5,289) and 50‑day SMA (¥5,004), confirming a sustained bullish momentum. The 14‑day RSI of 67 suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory, while a bullish MACD histogram (+¥67) reinforces short‑term upside potential. Current price sits near the identified resistance of ¥6,060, with a solid support level at ¥4,768, indicating a clear price corridor for the coming weeks.
Fundamentally, the company posted a 28% revenue growth year‑over‑year and maintains a respectable gross margin of 43%, yet its free cash flow is negative, offset by strong operating cash flow. A forward PE of 15.5 is below the industry average of 16.7, and the dividend yield of 2.7% with a payout ratio under 40% points to a sustainable income stream. However, the debt‑to‑equity ratio of 141% and a high leverage profile introduce balance‑sheet risk, while the volatility of 44% over the past month signals price swings that could test investors’ patience.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical alignment with SMA and MACD
  • Proximity to resistance level limiting upside
  • Elevated 30‑day volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and solid margins
  • Attractive valuation relative to industry PE
  • Sustainable dividend yield with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified financial services footprint across regions
  • Consistent cash‑flow generation despite free‑cash‑flow gap
  • Balanced risk from low beta and robust market cap

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth28.00%
Profit Margin13.43%
P/E Ratio14.5
ROE10.42%
ROA2.40%
Debt/Equity141.40
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow¥1369.6B
Free Cash Flow¥-1643793743872
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI67.3
Support¥4,768.00
Resistance¥6,060.00
MA 20¥5,289.05
MA 50¥5,003.82
MA 200¥4,390.99
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Fair Value¥25,868.29
Target Price¥5,534.44
Upside/Downside-4.22%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.70%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.42
Volatility44.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.