8418:TSEYamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time
HK$0.60
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Optima Automobile Group is trading at HK$0.60, well below its 20‑day (HK$0.89), 50‑day (HK$0.97) and 200‑day (HK$0.83) simple moving averages, indicating a sustained downtrend. RSI at 31 suggests the stock is oversold, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, reinforcing short‑term weakness. Volume is rising, but the 30‑day volatility of 119% and a historic max drawdown of -75% highlight extreme price swings.
Fundamentally, the company posted a 49.8% revenue contraction and operates on razor‑thin margins (gross 19.7%, operating 0.9%, profit 0.2%). The DCF‑derived fair value of roughly HK$0.07 is far below the current price, and a price‑to‑book of 12.3x signals severe overvaluation. With negligible earnings, no dividend, and a modest debt‑to‑equity of 26.8%, the business faces structural profitability challenges, making the stock a high‑risk proposition despite the recent technical oversold signal.
Fundamentally, the company posted a 49.8% revenue contraction and operates on razor‑thin margins (gross 19.7%, operating 0.9%, profit 0.2%). The DCF‑derived fair value of roughly HK$0.07 is far below the current price, and a price‑to‑book of 12.3x signals severe overvaluation. With negligible earnings, no dividend, and a modest debt‑to‑equity of 26.8%, the business faces structural profitability challenges, making the stock a high‑risk proposition despite the recent technical oversold signal.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price below all major moving averages
- Bearish MACD and low RSI
- Weak profitability and negative earnings
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value far below market price
- Continued revenue decline and thin margins
- High volatility and large historical drawdown
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Potential upside if Chinese aftermarket demand recovers
- Opportunity for cost restructuring and margin improvement
- Current valuation still disconnected from fundamentals
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-49.80%
Profit Margin0.21%
ROE1.68%
ROA-0.18%
Debt/Equity26.82
P/B Ratio12.3
Op. Cash FlowHK$847.0K
Free Cash FlowHK$3.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI31.2
SupportHK$0.60
ResistanceHK$1.23
MA 20HK$0.89
MA 50HK$0.97
MA 200HK$0.82
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.32
Valuation
Fair ValueHK$0.07
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.58
Volatility119.41%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.