8354:TSEFukuoka Financial Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time
NT$16.65
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Koan Hao’s price is trading above its 20‑day SMA and the MACD histogram has just turned positive, indicating short‑term bullish momentum. The RSI sits near the mid‑range at 53, and the stock holds comfortably above the calculated support of around 15.1, with the next resistance near 18.2.
However, the fundamentals tell a very different story: the trailing P/E is roughly 119x earnings, margins are thin (gross ~13%, operating ~3%), ROE is barely 1.5%, and the company carries a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 90% while generating negative free cash flow. The dividend yield looks attractive at 3.6%, but the payout ratio exceeds 400%, raising serious sustainability concerns.
Risk factors are pronounced – 30‑day volatility exceeds 60%, beta is slightly negative, and trading volume is well below its 10‑day average, suggesting liquidity constraints. Being a specialty chemicals maker adds medium sector and regulatory risk, and exposure to Taiwan, Vietnam and China introduces moderate geographic and currency risk.
However, the fundamentals tell a very different story: the trailing P/E is roughly 119x earnings, margins are thin (gross ~13%, operating ~3%), ROE is barely 1.5%, and the company carries a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 90% while generating negative free cash flow. The dividend yield looks attractive at 3.6%, but the payout ratio exceeds 400%, raising serious sustainability concerns.
Risk factors are pronounced – 30‑day volatility exceeds 60%, beta is slightly negative, and trading volume is well below its 10‑day average, suggesting liquidity constraints. Being a specialty chemicals maker adds medium sector and regulatory risk, and exposure to Taiwan, Vietnam and China introduces moderate geographic and currency risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD crossover
- Price above short‑term moving averages
- Extreme greed sentiment
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Elevated P/E relative to earnings
- High debt load and negative free cash flow
- Uncertain dividend sustainability
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Persistent overvaluation on earnings basis
- Weak profitability and low ROE
- Heavy leverage and cash‑flow deficits
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.60%
Profit Margin4.70%
P/E Ratio118.9
ROE1.45%
ROA-0.03%
Debt/Equity90.47
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash FlowNT$48.3M
Free Cash FlowNT$-140364624
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI53.4
SupportNT$15.10
ResistanceNT$18.20
MA 20NT$16.22
MA 50NT$15.93
MA 200NT$15.47
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.60%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.21
Volatility62.79%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.