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8334:TSEGunma Bank, Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

¥2,383.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The Gunma Bank is trading at ¥2,383, just shy of its 52‑week high of ¥2,392 and comfortably above its 20‑day (¥2,178) and 50‑day (¥2,175) moving averages, signaling a bullish technical backdrop. Momentum indicators reinforce the upside bias: the MACD line sits well above its signal (bullish) and the RSI at 65.6 points to strong buying pressure, though the recent dip in trading volume and a 30‑day volatility of 37 % suggest a potential short‑term pullback toward the ¥1,970 support. Market sentiment is extremely positive, reflected in a Fear‑Greed Index of 90.3 (Extreme Greed), and analysts have a “Buy” consensus with a modest 2.8 % upside target of ¥2,450.
Fundamentally, the bank posted a robust 20.4 % revenue growth and impressive operating (41.8 %) and profit margins (29.2 %), positioning it slightly cheaper than peers with a trailing P/E of 15.38 versus the industry average of 16.66. The dividend yield of 3.03 % and a 40 % payout ratio underscore attractive income potential, yet a negative operating cash flow of ¥‑281 bn and a forward P/E of 35.8 raise concerns about near‑term cash generation and valuation sustainability.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance at ¥2,392
  • High RSI indicating overbought conditions
  • Decreasing volume and elevated volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of 20 % with strong margins
  • Attractive dividend yield of 3 % and reasonable payout
  • Trailing P/E below industry average

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta (0.13) indicating limited market sensitivity
  • Stable regulatory environment for regional Japanese banks
  • Cash flow concerns and high forward P/E tempering optimism

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth20.40%
Profit Margin29.23%
P/E Ratio15.4
ROE9.96%
ROA0.55%
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow¥-281375997952
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI65.7
Support¥1,970.00
Resistance¥2,392.00
MA 20¥2,178.33
MA 50¥2,174.85
MA 200¥1,824.83
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.29

Valuation

Target Price¥2,450.00
Upside/Downside2.81%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.03%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.48
Volatility37.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.