8334:TSEGunma Bank, Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time
¥2,383.00
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The Gunma Bank is trading at ¥2,383, just shy of its 52‑week high of ¥2,392 and comfortably above its 20‑day (¥2,178) and 50‑day (¥2,175) moving averages, signaling a bullish technical backdrop. Momentum indicators reinforce the upside bias: the MACD line sits well above its signal (bullish) and the RSI at 65.6 points to strong buying pressure, though the recent dip in trading volume and a 30‑day volatility of 37 % suggest a potential short‑term pullback toward the ¥1,970 support. Market sentiment is extremely positive, reflected in a Fear‑Greed Index of 90.3 (Extreme Greed), and analysts have a “Buy” consensus with a modest 2.8 % upside target of ¥2,450.
Fundamentally, the bank posted a robust 20.4 % revenue growth and impressive operating (41.8 %) and profit margins (29.2 %), positioning it slightly cheaper than peers with a trailing P/E of 15.38 versus the industry average of 16.66. The dividend yield of 3.03 % and a 40 % payout ratio underscore attractive income potential, yet a negative operating cash flow of ¥‑281 bn and a forward P/E of 35.8 raise concerns about near‑term cash generation and valuation sustainability.
Fundamentally, the bank posted a robust 20.4 % revenue growth and impressive operating (41.8 %) and profit margins (29.2 %), positioning it slightly cheaper than peers with a trailing P/E of 15.38 versus the industry average of 16.66. The dividend yield of 3.03 % and a 40 % payout ratio underscore attractive income potential, yet a negative operating cash flow of ¥‑281 bn and a forward P/E of 35.8 raise concerns about near‑term cash generation and valuation sustainability.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near resistance at ¥2,392
- High RSI indicating overbought conditions
- Decreasing volume and elevated volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth of 20 % with strong margins
- Attractive dividend yield of 3 % and reasonable payout
- Trailing P/E below industry average
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Low beta (0.13) indicating limited market sensitivity
- Stable regulatory environment for regional Japanese banks
- Cash flow concerns and high forward P/E tempering optimism
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth20.40%
Profit Margin29.23%
P/E Ratio15.4
ROE9.96%
ROA0.55%
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow¥-281375997952
Industry P/E16.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI65.7
Support¥1,970.00
Resistance¥2,392.00
MA 20¥2,178.33
MA 50¥2,174.85
MA 200¥1,824.83
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.29
Valuation
Target Price¥2,450.00
Upside/Downside2.81%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.03%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.48
Volatility37.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.