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8316:TSESumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-20 - not real-time

¥6,482.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is trading at 6,482 JPY, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 6,188 JPY and sitting just below the 52‑week high of 6,733 JPY, indicating strong upward momentum. Technicals are supportive with a bullish MACD histogram (+28.9) and an RSI of 61.5, suggesting continued buying pressure without being overbought. Volume is on an increasing trend, and the stock’s beta of roughly 0.4 points to lower volatility than the broader market, a factor reinforced by the “Extreme Greed” reading on the fear‑greed index (91.46). Recent price performance has been impressive, delivering a 13.3% gain over the past month and a 73% total shareholder return over the last year, while analysts (12 in total) rate the stock as a “buy.”
Valuation appears attractive: the trailing P/E of 15.7 sits below the industry average of 16.9, and the price‑to‑book ratio of 1.57 reflects a modest premium to book value. The dividend yield of 1.4% is backed by a payout ratio of 38%, indicating decent sustainability, and the consensus target price around 6,580 JPY suggests upside potential of roughly 1.6%. Combined with solid operating margins (≈27%) and a respectable ROE of 9.8%, the fundamentals support a buy case, though the negative operating cash flow warrants monitoring.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (MACD, RSI) and rising volume
  • Strong recent price momentum and analyst buy consensus
  • Low beta indicating reduced short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive valuation relative to industry peers
  • Sustainable dividend payout with moderate yield
  • Potential headwinds from regulatory and interest‑rate environments

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent profitability and solid capital base
  • Undervalued pricing offering upside potential
  • Stable dividend and low long‑term volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Profit Margin26.13%
P/E Ratio15.7
ROE9.78%
ROA0.51%
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow¥-21584777576448
Industry P/E16.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI61.5
Support¥5,793.00
Resistance¥6,733.00
MA 20¥6,188.45
MA 50¥5,854.94
MA 200¥5,081.51
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Target Price¥6,590.00
Upside/Downside1.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.40%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.70
Volatility31.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.