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8304:TSEAozora Bank, Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

¥2,788.50

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Aozora Bank is trading well above its short‑term and medium‑term moving averages, with a bullish MACD histogram and RSI sitting in the upper‑mid range, indicating continued upward momentum. The stock benefits from a dividend yield north of three percent and a payout ratio comfortably below fifty percent, supporting income‑focused investors. Valuation metrics such as a price‑to‑earnings ratio below the industry average and a price‑to‑book ratio under one suggest the shares are priced attractively, while revenue growth approaching fifty percent signals strong top‑line expansion. However, operating cash flow remains negative and the bank carries substantial absolute debt, which tempers the upside despite low beta, rising volume, and a relatively modest overall risk profile.
Given the bullish technical backdrop and appealing dividend, the near‑term outlook leans toward a hold‑or‑buy stance, whereas medium‑term investors may find the growth‑value blend compelling. Long‑term holders should monitor cash‑flow sustainability and regulatory developments, as these could influence the bank’s ability to maintain its dividend and growth trajectory.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, positive MACD)
  • Increasing trading volume supporting momentum
  • Negative operating cash flow limiting upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and attractive dividend yield
  • Undervalued valuation relative to peers
  • Low beta and moderate volatility reducing market risk

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend payout with reasonable coverage
  • Potential pressure from cash‑flow constraints
  • Regulatory environment for regional banks in Japan

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth46.90%
Profit Margin19.21%
P/E Ratio15.0
ROE5.59%
ROA0.32%
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow¥-288955006976
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI63.8
Support¥2,482.50
Resistance¥2,824.00
MA 20¥2,634.08
MA 50¥2,608.20
MA 200¥2,465.07
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.91

Valuation

Target Price¥2,476.67
Upside/Downside-11.18%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.65%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.53
Volatility24.44%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.