8015:TSEToyota Tsusho Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-20 - not real-time
¥6,076.00
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Toyota Tsusho is trading just below its short‑term moving average while the medium‑term average remains higher, indicating a modest bearish bias that is being countered by a bullish MACD histogram and a neutral RSI. Fundamentally, the stock trades at a price‑earnings multiple well below the industry average and offers a solid dividend yield with a comfortable payout ratio, supported by strong operating cash flow and ample cash reserves.
The balance sheet shows elevated leverage, yet the debt‑to‑equity ratio is offset by robust cash generation and a low beta, suggesting limited systematic risk. Volatility is elevated, but market sentiment is in the "extreme greed" zone, which may be inflating price expectations. Overall, the company’s diversified industrial footprint and steady earnings growth provide a stable platform, but price appreciation may be constrained by valuation gaps relative to discounted cash‑flow estimates.
The balance sheet shows elevated leverage, yet the debt‑to‑equity ratio is offset by robust cash generation and a low beta, suggesting limited systematic risk. Volatility is elevated, but market sentiment is in the "extreme greed" zone, which may be inflating price expectations. Overall, the company’s diversified industrial footprint and steady earnings growth provide a stable platform, but price appreciation may be constrained by valuation gaps relative to discounted cash‑flow estimates.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near short‑term support with neutral trend
- Bullish MACD histogram signaling possible upside
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Attractive valuation relative to peers
- Strong cash generation and sustainable dividend
- Consistent revenue growth and diversified business mix
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Diversified global exposure mitigates single‑market risk
- High leverage balanced by ample cash and low systematic risk
- Stable dividend policy supporting total return
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth19.50%
Profit Margin3.21%
P/E Ratio17.3
ROE13.20%
ROA4.42%
Debt/Equity70.25
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow¥461.2B
Free Cash Flow¥140.1B
Industry P/E30.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI44.3
Support¥5,903.00
Resistance¥6,510.00
MA 20¥6,104.75
MA 50¥6,445.70
MA 200¥5,782.59
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.48
Valuation
Fair Value¥2,967.59
Target Price¥7,887.78
Upside/Downside29.82%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.06%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.75
Volatility29.47%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.