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7984:TSEKokuyo Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

¥823.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Kokuyo’s share price sits comfortably above the 20‑day SMA but remains under the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, indicating short‑term resilience amid a broader bearish trend. The MACD histogram is positive and the signal line is bullish, while the RSI hovers in the mid‑50s, suggesting neither over‑bought nor oversold conditions. Volume has been on a downtrend and 30‑day volatility is high at roughly 35%, reflecting a fairly choppy market environment, though the stock’s beta of about 0.36 points to limited systematic risk. On the fundamentals side, the trailing PE of 17 is well below the industry average of 30, and the forward PE of under 4 signals strong earnings momentum. A dividend yield of 3% with a 50% payout ratio, ample cash reserves and modest leverage further underpin the company’s appeal, even though free cash flow is currently negative. Overall, the market price exceeds the DCF‑derived fair value of ~588 JPY, hinting at some overvaluation despite attractive relative multiples and a solid dividend profile.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price trading near short‑term support above the 20‑day SMA
  • Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility
  • Attractive dividend yield providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong earnings growth reflected in a forward PE below 4
  • Valuation multiples well under industry averages
  • Sustainable dividend with solid cash position

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Stable dividend policy and moderate payout ratio
  • Consistent revenue growth and decent profitability margins
  • Low systematic risk (beta) and diversified product portfolio

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.70%
Profit Margin5.85%
P/E Ratio17.0
ROE8.27%
ROA4.68%
Debt/Equity1.53
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow¥12.3B
Free Cash Flow¥-4105250048
Industry P/E30.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI54.2
Support¥784.00
Resistance¥834.40
MA 20¥805.52
MA 50¥835.84
MA 200¥881.94
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.71

Valuation

Fair Value¥588.13
Target Price¥983.33
Upside/Downside19.48%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.00%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.36
Volatility35.21%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.