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7974:TSENintendo Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-03 - not real-time

¥7,153.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading below its short‑term and mid‑term moving averages, signaling short‑term weakness, yet the MACD histogram has turned positive, hinting at a potential bullish reversal. Price sits near a well‑defined support level and faces resistance just above the current range, while volatility remains elevated, suggesting larger price swings. A very low beta underscores limited sensitivity to broader market moves, which can be advantageous in a choppy environment.
Fundamental outlook: Nintendo delivers robust revenue growth and healthy profit margins, supported by a massive cash reserve and zero debt. The dividend yield is solid with a comfortable payout ratio, and the DCF‑derived fair value points to a substantial upside relative to the current price. Analyst consensus is bullish, and the company’s iconic IP portfolio provides a durable competitive edge.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • price near key support with technical bounce potential
  • MACD histogram turning positive despite bearish trend
  • strong cash position enables opportunistic buying

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value suggests meaningful upside
  • zero‑debt balance sheet and robust free cash flow
  • attractive dividend yield enhances total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • sustainable dividend and ongoing cash generation
  • global IP franchise strength provides enduring revenue streams
  • moderate sector cyclicality balanced by low market beta

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth95.10%
Profit Margin18.33%
P/E Ratio19.6
ROE14.93%
ROA6.25%
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow¥289.8B
Free Cash Flow¥277.4B
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI50.4
Support¥6,544.00
Resistance¥7,898.00
MA 20¥7,099.95
MA 50¥7,309.54
MA 200¥10,114.66
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.59

Valuation

Fair Value¥10,600.46
Target Price¥10,281.88
Upside/Downside43.74%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.07%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.30
Volatility38.45%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.