7282:TSEToyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time
¥4,349.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Toyoda Gosei is trading well below its DCF-derived fair value, offering roughly a double‑digit upside while delivering a solid 2.5% dividend yield. Technical signals are mixed: the 20‑day moving average sits above the 50‑day average, supporting a bullish bias, yet the MACD histogram is negative and the RSI hovers in the low‑40s, hinting at near‑term weakness. Fundamentally, revenue is growing close to 9% YoY, margins are modest but stable, and cash balances comfortably exceed debt, resulting in a low payout ratio and strong dividend sustainability. The stock’s price remains above recent support levels, and volume is stable, suggesting limited short‑term pressure. Overall, the combination of undervaluation, defensive cash flow, and a resilient auto‑parts market positions the shares for upside across multiple horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- 20‑day SMA above 50‑day SMA indicating bullish trend
- Current price above key support level
- Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to DCF fair value
- Consistent revenue growth and stable operating margins
- Strong cash position reducing financial risk
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustained dividend policy and dividend growth potential
- Diversified global footprint mitigating regional downturns
- Long‑term industry tailwinds for automotive safety and electronics
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.80%
Profit Margin4.35%
P/E Ratio12.1
ROE8.90%
ROA4.15%
Debt/Equity19.63
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow¥126.3B
Free Cash Flow¥31.8B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI38.8
Support¥4,262.00
Resistance¥5,155.00
MA 20¥4,759.00
MA 50¥4,530.60
MA 200¥3,690.19
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value¥5,849.83
Target Price¥4,888.57
Upside/Downside12.41%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.53%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.65
Volatility46.13%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.