7276:TSEKoito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
¥2,577.50
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: Koito Manufacturing is perched above its 50‑day moving average with a clear upward bias, yet it remains below the 20‑day average, hinting at short‑term softness. Volume is on the rise and the RSI sits near the midpoint, while a negative MACD histogram points to bearish momentum in the near term.
Fundamental perspective: The stock trades at a mid‑teens P/E and just above one‑times book, with a discounted cash‑flow estimate notably higher than the market price, indicating an undervalued position. Revenue growth is modest, margins are thin but consistent, and the company boasts strong operating cash flow, ample cash reserves, and minimal debt, underpinning a sustainable dividend around the 2 % range.
Risk context: Operating in the cyclical auto‑parts sector introduces demand volatility, but a low beta, limited regulatory exposure, and a domestic yen base keep overall risk modest. Robust trading volumes mitigate liquidity concerns.
Fundamental perspective: The stock trades at a mid‑teens P/E and just above one‑times book, with a discounted cash‑flow estimate notably higher than the market price, indicating an undervalued position. Revenue growth is modest, margins are thin but consistent, and the company boasts strong operating cash flow, ample cash reserves, and minimal debt, underpinning a sustainable dividend around the 2 % range.
Risk context: Operating in the cyclical auto‑parts sector introduces demand volatility, but a low beta, limited regulatory exposure, and a domestic yen base keep overall risk modest. Robust trading volumes mitigate liquidity concerns.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram
- Price below 20‑day SMA
- RSI near neutral
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value above market price
- Strong cash position and low debt
- Sustainable dividend yield
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Cyclical sector exposure
- Moderate revenue growth
- Consistent dividend income
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.20%
Profit Margin4.30%
P/E Ratio16.0
ROE6.46%
ROA3.34%
Debt/Equity0.26
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow¥96.9B
Free Cash Flow¥29.8B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI45.7
Support¥2,487.50
Resistance¥2,824.00
MA 20¥2,676.85
MA 50¥2,536.77
MA 200¥2,189.61
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value¥2,902.94
Target Price¥2,369.00
Upside/Downside-8.09%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.17%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.46
Volatility27.18%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.