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6981:TSEMurata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-07 - not real-time

¥9,212.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Murata Manufacturing (6981.T) trades at ¥9,212, well below its 20‑day SMA of ¥10,672 but above the 50‑day SMA, indicating a mixed short‑term price signal. The stock sits in a bullish macro trend (price above the 200‑day SMA) yet the MACD shows a bearish divergence (histogram –325) and volume is on a downtrend, suggesting near‑term pressure. Fundamentally, the company posts solid top‑line growth (11.8% YoY revenue increase) and a healthy cash pile (¥653 bn) with a modest debt load, supporting its 0.68% dividend and a payout ratio of ~51%.
Recent product news – the launch of a world‑first 2.2 µF/100 V automotive‑grade MLCC in an 0805 package – reinforces Murata’s moat in the high‑value automotive and ADAS market, potentially driving medium‑term earnings upside despite the current PE of 71.9x, which is more than double the industry average.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below 20‑day SMA and bearish MACD histogram
  • Decreasing volume and high 30‑day volatility (~120%)
  • Support level at ¥8,083 offering limited downside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and expanding automotive MLCC portfolio
  • Robust cash generation (¥425 bn operating cash flow) and low debt‑to‑equity
  • Forward EPS growth (forward PE 38.8x) indicating earnings acceleration

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend with reasonable payout ratio
  • Overvalued relative to peers (PE 71.9x vs industry 33.9x)
  • Long‑term secular demand for high‑frequency and automotive components

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth11.80%
Profit Margin12.78%
P/E Ratio71.9
ROE8.83%
ROA6.49%
Debt/Equity2.05
P/B Ratio6.2
Op. Cash Flow¥425.2B
Free Cash Flow¥110.9B
Industry P/E33.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI44.4
Support¥8,083.00
Resistance¥12,895.00
MA 20¥10,672.25
MA 50¥8,577.22
MA 200¥4,652.11
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93

Valuation

Fair Value¥1,644.76
Target Price¥10,982.35
Upside/Downside19.22%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.68%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.72
Volatility120.28%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.