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6481:TSETHK Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-06 - not real-time

¥7,609.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

THK Co., Ltd. is trading at 7,609 JPY, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (7,424.55) and 200‑day SMA (4,784.53), which signals a bullish price positioning. Yet the MACD histogram is negative (-26.7) and the signal line is bearish, indicating weakening momentum despite the overall bullish trend. The RSI sits at 60.8, showing moderate strength but not an overbought condition, while volume is on a decreasing trend, hinting at fading participation.
Fundamentally the company is under pressure: revenue fell 18.7% YoY, profit margin is a negative 25.7%, and earnings per share are negative, resulting in a trailing P/E of 84.7 versus an industry average of 30.2. The DCF‑derived fair value of roughly 1,957 JPY suggests the market price is about 8% overvalued. With a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 55% (debt exceeding cash) and a dividend payout ratio of 274%, the 2.42% dividend yield is clearly unsustainable. These combined technical and fundamental signals portray an overvalued, value‑oriented stock facing significant earnings and balance‑sheet challenges.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • price above short‑term moving averages
  • bearish MACD divergence
  • decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • trailing P/E far above industry average
  • negative earnings and profit margin
  • unsustainable dividend payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value far below market price
  • high debt‑to‑equity and net debt
  • persistent revenue decline

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-18.70%
Profit Margin-25.74%
P/E Ratio84.7
ROE5.19%
ROA2.76%
Debt/Equity55.40
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash Flow¥39.0B
Free Cash Flow¥20.0B
Industry P/E30.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI60.8
Support¥6,520.00
Resistance¥8,037.00
MA 20¥7,424.55
MA 50¥6,193.42
MA 200¥4,784.53
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.02

Valuation

Fair Value¥1,956.84
Target Price¥6,994.62
Upside/Downside-8.07%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.42%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.90
Volatility55.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.