6415:TWSESilergy Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time
NT$487.00
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Silergy Corp. (6415.TW) sits on a bullish long‑term trajectory (20‑day SMA 560, 50‑day SMA 451, 200‑day SMA 299) but is currently challenged by a bearish MACD signal (line 12.9 vs signal 34, negative histogram) and a sub‑50 RSI (44.7), suggesting short‑term momentum weakness.
The stock trades at 487 TWD, well above the DCF fair value of 86.8 TWD and the industry‑average PE of 36.8, with a current PE of 77.5, indicating significant overvaluation. Despite a 18.7% revenue growth and a 0.52% dividend yield, free cash flow is negative, the payout ratio is modest (38%), and volatility is extreme (≈87% 30‑day). The “Extreme Greed” reading of the fear‑greed index (89.86) further flags a potential market correction.
The stock trades at 487 TWD, well above the DCF fair value of 86.8 TWD and the industry‑average PE of 36.8, with a current PE of 77.5, indicating significant overvaluation. Despite a 18.7% revenue growth and a 0.52% dividend yield, free cash flow is negative, the payout ratio is modest (38%), and volatility is extreme (≈87% 30‑day). The “Extreme Greed” reading of the fear‑greed index (89.86) further flags a potential market correction.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD and falling below 20‑day SMA
- Decreasing volume trend
- Extremely high PE vs industry
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish long‑term SMA hierarchy
- 18.7% YoY revenue growth
- Potential 20% upside to target median price
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Persistent overvaluation (PE 77.5)
- Negative free‑cash flow and high volatility
- Extreme greed index indicating market saturation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.70%
Profit Margin14.75%
P/E Ratio77.5
ROE7.81%
ROA3.24%
Debt/Equity9.64
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash FlowNT$1.1B
Free Cash FlowNT$-1879587200
Industry P/E36.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI44.7
SupportNT$456.50
ResistanceNT$693.00
MA 20NT$560.13
MA 50NT$450.97
MA 200NT$299.42
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair ValueNT$86.82
Target PriceNT$585.78
Upside/Downside20.28%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.52%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.99
Volatility86.81%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.