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6103:TSEOkuma Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

NT$36.50

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Price action sits at TWD 36.5, below the 20‑day SMA of 37.67, the 50‑day SMA of 39.21 and the 200‑day SMA of 38.77, signalling a bearish positioning. The RSI at 40.3 is neutral‑to‑slightly bearish and the MACD line remains under its signal with a negative histogram, confirming downward momentum. Current price hovers just above the identified support at 35.15 and well beneath the resistance of 39.70, while volume is rising, suggesting potential pressure to break lower. Volatility is extreme at over 41% for the past 30 days and beta is slightly negative, indicating the stock moves independently of the market and amplifies risk. The company pays a modest dividend yield of 0.52% with a low payout ratio, but with negative earnings (trailing EPS ‑0.56) and operating cash flow deficits, the dividend’s sustainability is doubtful.
Fundamentally, Avid Electronics shows a price‑to‑book of 3.26, which is high for a semiconductor firm lacking earnings, rendering the valuation effectively overvalued. The balance sheet is cash‑rich (≈ 95 M TWD) and lightly indebted, yet the negative margins and a 34% max drawdown highlight operational weakness. Recent news about an expanded IP‑core catalog hints at a future product pipeline, but the impact remains speculative. Combined with thin trading liquidity and heightened sector cyclicality, the overall outlook is cautious.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and price below all major moving averages
  • Proximity to support level with rising volume
  • Negative earnings and cash flow despite dividend payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained negative operating margins and EPS
  • High volatility and large historical drawdown
  • Uncertain benefit from new IP‑core offerings

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Overvalued price relative to book and lack of earnings
  • Dividend sustainability concerns amid operating losses
  • Elevated sector and liquidity risks in a cyclical market

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.00%
Profit Margin-11.17%
ROE-6.39%
ROA-1.33%
Debt/Equity0.88
P/B Ratio3.3
Op. Cash FlowNT$-23132000
Free Cash FlowNT$-13956750
Industry P/E36.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI40.3
SupportNT$35.15
ResistanceNT$39.70
MA 20NT$37.67
MA 50NT$39.21
MA 200NT$38.77
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.52%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.49
Volatility41.22%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.