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601607:SSEShanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co. Ltd. Class A Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time

CN¥17.27

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals is trading near the upper edge of its recent range with price hovering just above the 20‑day moving average but still below the 50‑day average, indicating a short‑term bearish bias. Technical signals show a modest bullish MACD histogram while the overall trend remains bearish, and volume is on the rise, suggesting cautious participation. The stock’s price‑to‑earnings multiple sits well below the industry average, pointing to a relative valuation advantage, yet the discounted cash flow model implies the market price exceeds intrinsic value. Fundamentally, revenue growth is modest and margins are thin, with operating cash flow positive but free cash flow negative, highlighting cash conversion challenges. Debt levels are elevated, resulting in a high debt‑to‑equity ratio that could pressure financial flexibility. Dividend yield remains attractive and the payout ratio is low, supporting dividend sustainability. The beta is low, reflecting limited market volatility, while the 30‑day price swing is moderate, indicating manageable price swings. Overall, the stock presents a mixed picture of valuation attractiveness tempered by operational and financial headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages signals bearish bias
  • Increasing volume supports potential bounce
  • MACD histogram turning positive suggests limited upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Low PE relative to peers offers value appeal
  • Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
  • Modest revenue growth and high debt raise caution

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Market price exceeds DCF fair value indicating overvaluation
  • Elevated debt burden may constrain future profitability
  • Thin margins and negative free cash flow limit long‑term cash generation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.60%
Profit Margin2.01%
P/E Ratio11.3
ROE7.91%
ROA2.15%
Debt/Equity65.73
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash FlowCN¥5.4B
Free Cash FlowCN¥-873059392
Industry P/E26.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI50.1
SupportCN¥16.94
ResistanceCN¥17.34
MA 20CN¥17.21
MA 50CN¥17.43
MA 200CN¥18.10
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index79.45

Valuation

Fair ValueCN¥12.97
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.37%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.04
Volatility7.75%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.