601600:SSEAluminum Corporation of China Limited Class A Analysis

Aluminum Corp of China (CHALCO) trades at CNY 11.42, well below its DCF fair value of about CNY 19.5, indicating a sizable discount. The stock’s 20‑day SMA sits at 11.46, just above the current price, while the 50‑day SMA remains higher at 11.76, suggesting a short‑term pull‑back but not a breakdown. Technical momentum is mixed: RSI is near 48, the MACD histogram is positive and the MACD line sits above its signal, signaling a modest bullish bias. Volume is on an increasing trend, providing liquidity support for any upside move. The price is comfortably above the identified support at 10.34 and well below the resistance near 12.47, offering a clear risk‑reward window.
Fundamentally, CHALCO delivers a 4.8% revenue growth, solid operating margin of 21%, and a healthy ROE of 21%, underscoring efficient asset utilization. Cash generation is strong, with operating cash flow of CNY 38.7 bn and free cash flow of CNY 22 bn, comfortably covering its debt load (debt‑to‑equity ~44%). The dividend yield of 2.28% is backed by a modest payout ratio of 30%, making the dividend sustainable. Valuation multiples (PE 13.3, forward PE 9) are attractive relative to peers, reinforcing the “undervalued” label. Given the combination of technical support, attractive valuation, and solid fundamentals, the stock presents a compelling buying opportunity across horizons.