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601225:SSEShaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time

CN¥23.94

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225) is trading at CNY 23.94, just above the computed support of CNY 22.82 and below its 20‑day SMA of CNY 25.67, indicating limited upside in the near term. The stock shows a bullish long‑term trend (SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200) but the MACD histogram is negative and the 14‑day RSI sits at 38, suggesting short‑term momentum weakness. Valuation metrics are mixed: the trailing P/E of 14.3 is well below the industry average of 20.7, implying relative undervaluation, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of CNY 15.3 is far beneath the current price, pointing to potential overpricing. The company boasts a strong balance sheet with CNY 40.8 bn cash versus CNY 26.0 bn debt and generates robust free cash flow (CNY 10.1 bn), supporting its generous 5.68% dividend yield. However, high 30‑day volatility (≈43%) and a negative beta indicate price swings that are largely independent of the broader market.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above key support with limited upside
  • Bearish MACD signal and RSI below 40 indicating momentum weakness
  • Elevated short‑term volatility (~43%)

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Trailing P/E well below industry average, suggesting value upside
  • Strong cash position and sustainable dividend yield
  • Bullish longer‑term SMA alignment indicating potential price recovery

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Increasing regulatory pressure on thermal coal in China
  • Current price far above DCF fair value, limiting upside
  • Solid balance sheet and dividend income provide defensive appeal

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.00%
Profit Margin10.30%
P/E Ratio14.3
ROE18.52%
ROA7.43%
Debt/Equity17.84
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash FlowCN¥37.9B
Free Cash FlowCN¥10.1B
Industry P/E20.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI38.3
SupportCN¥22.82
ResistanceCN¥28.20
MA 20CN¥25.67
MA 50CN¥25.25
MA 200CN¥23.27
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.13

Valuation

Fair ValueCN¥15.32
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.68%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.21
Volatility43.02%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.