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601100:SSEJiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-16 - not real-time

CN¥110.58

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic is riding strong top‑line momentum, with revenue climbing 32.5% YoY and profit margins around 24% delivering a solid ROE of 16% and ample cash of CNY 9.4bn against minimal debt. However, the market price of CNY 110.58 translates to a PE of 53.4x, far above the industry average of 30.9x and the DCF‑derived fair value of only CNY 38.4, indicating a significant overvaluation. Technically, the stock sits just below its 20‑day SMA (111.5) and the 50‑day SMA (113.0), with a neutral RSI of 48.7 and a bearish MACD histogram, while volume is on the rise, suggesting accumulation but also heightened short‑term pressure. Volatility is elevated at 53% over the past month, yet beta remains low (≈0.5), pointing to limited systematic risk. Dividend yield is modest at 0.78% with a payout ratio under 50%, supporting sustainability. No material news items were identified to shift the current outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages
  • Bearish MACD signal
  • High valuation relative to DCF

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained revenue growth and strong margins
  • Low debt and strong cash generation
  • Elevated volatility and overvaluation persisting

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust fundamentals and cash‑rich balance sheet
  • Dividend sustainability and moderate payout
  • Potential valuation correction toward DCF fair value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth32.50%
Profit Margin23.61%
P/E Ratio53.4
ROE16.13%
ROA8.70%
Debt/Equity0.25
P/B Ratio8.3
Op. Cash FlowCN¥2.3B
Free Cash FlowCN¥1.2B
Industry P/E30.9

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.7
SupportCN¥103.25
ResistanceCN¥124.00
MA 20CN¥111.53
MA 50CN¥112.96
MA 200CN¥105.66
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.45

Valuation

Fair ValueCN¥38.39
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.78%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.52
Volatility53.00%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.