600895:SSEShanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-28 - not real-time
CN¥37.51
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Technical indicators show the stock trading at CNY 37.51, just above its 20‑day SMA (37.11) and 50‑day SMA (36.48) while still below the 200‑day SMA (39.51), suggesting a short‑term upward bias within a longer‑term neutral trend. The RSI sits at 51, the MACD line is bullish (histogram +0.15), and volume is increasing, with support near 33.73 and resistance around 40.95.
Fundamental picture is considerably weaker: a trailing PE of 75 versus an industry average of 32, a forward PE of 47, and a DCF‑derived fair value of roughly CNY 33.2 place the market price well above intrinsic estimates. Revenue has contracted by 31%, ROE is only 3.7%, and the company carries an extreme debt‑to‑equity ratio of 149, raising solvency concerns despite a modest dividend yield of 0.6% and a payout ratio of 45%.
Fundamental picture is considerably weaker: a trailing PE of 75 versus an industry average of 32, a forward PE of 47, and a DCF‑derived fair value of roughly CNY 33.2 place the market price well above intrinsic estimates. Revenue has contracted by 31%, ROE is only 3.7%, and the company carries an extreme debt‑to‑equity ratio of 149, raising solvency concerns despite a modest dividend yield of 0.6% and a payout ratio of 45%.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and price above short‑term moving averages
- High valuation relative to DCF and peers
- Elevated leverage but ample cash reserves
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- PE far above industry average indicating overvaluation
- Negative revenue growth and weak profitability metrics
- Real‑estate sector headwinds and high debt burden
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained high debt‑to‑equity ratio increasing default risk
- Fundamental misalignment with fair‑value estimates
- Regulatory and macro‑economic pressures on Chinese real‑estate
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-31.30%
Profit Margin20.40%
P/E Ratio75.0
ROE3.75%
ROA1.22%
Debt/Equity148.72
P/B Ratio4.3
Op. Cash FlowCN¥501.6M
Free Cash FlowCN¥5.8B
Industry P/E32.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI51.0
SupportCN¥33.73
ResistanceCN¥40.95
MA 20CN¥37.11
MA 50CN¥36.48
MA 200CN¥39.51
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.32
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥33.19
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.60%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.27
Volatility49.38%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.