600519:SSEKweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
CN¥1,399.97
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Kweichow Moutai trades around CNY 1,400, far above its DCF fair value of roughly CNY 630, indicating a substantial premium. The company boasts exceptional profitability—gross margins above 90% and ROE exceeding 35%—and generates strong free cash flow, supporting its 3.7% dividend yield, though the payout ratio sits near 72%.
Technical indicators are mixed: the price sits below both the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, RSI hovers in the low‑40s, and a bearish MACD histogram suggests short‑term momentum weakness, while volume is on a downtrend. Combined with modest systematic risk (beta near zero) but elevated short‑term volatility, the stock appears overvalued on price yet underpinned by solid fundamentals and a resilient consumer‑defensive business.
Technical indicators are mixed: the price sits below both the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, RSI hovers in the low‑40s, and a bearish MACD histogram suggests short‑term momentum weakness, while volume is on a downtrend. Combined with modest systematic risk (beta near zero) but elevated short‑term volatility, the stock appears overvalued on price yet underpinned by solid fundamentals and a resilient consumer‑defensive business.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages
- Bearish MACD momentum
- High valuation premium
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustained high profit margins and cash flow
- Strong dividend yield
- Continued regulatory scrutiny of alcohol sector
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Robust brand positioning and pricing power
- Consistent earnings generation despite modest revenue growth
- Potential for valuation compression as market re‑prices fundamentals
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth0.60%
Profit Margin50.41%
P/E Ratio19.5
ROE36.31%
ROA25.58%
Debt/Equity0.10
P/B Ratio6.8
Op. Cash FlowCN¥86.2B
Free Cash FlowCN¥51.6B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI41.5
SupportCN¥1,383.20
ResistanceCN¥1,568.00
MA 20CN¥1,462.40
MA 50CN¥1,422.02
MA 200CN¥1,448.49
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥631.73
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.68%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.00
Volatility34.07%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.