600362:SSEJiangxi Copper Company Limited Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
CN¥50.74
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Jiangxi Copper trades at ¥50.74, sitting just above the computed support of ¥49.60 and below the 20‑day SMA of ¥55.08, while the 14‑day RSI of 38 hints at modest oversold pressure. Technical signals are mixed: the MACD remains in a bearish configuration and the histogram is negative, yet the trend direction is marked neutral and volume is stable. Price volatility is elevated at 67% over the past 30 days, though the computed beta of 0.25 suggests limited systematic market risk.
Fundamentally, the company posted ¥524.8 bn of revenue with a solid 14% YoY growth, but margins are thin (gross 3.3%, operating 1.8%). Debt‑to‑equity stands at 105%, counterbalanced by strong cash reserves and a dividend yield of 2.17% with a modest 30% payout ratio. The DCF‑derived fair value of ¥30.26 indicates the stock is currently overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates, while copper’s long‑term demand outlook and a sustainable dividend provide a defensive cushion.
Fundamentally, the company posted ¥524.8 bn of revenue with a solid 14% YoY growth, but margins are thin (gross 3.3%, operating 1.8%). Debt‑to‑equity stands at 105%, counterbalanced by strong cash reserves and a dividend yield of 2.17% with a modest 30% payout ratio. The DCF‑derived fair value of ¥30.26 indicates the stock is currently overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates, while copper’s long‑term demand outlook and a sustainable dividend provide a defensive cushion.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support with limited upside
- Bearish MACD and negative histogram
- Stable trading volume reducing immediate liquidity concerns
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth of 14% and improving cash flow
- Sustainable dividend yield and low payout ratio
- Copper demand fundamentals supporting earnings expansion
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Current price exceeds DCF fair value, limiting upside
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio poses balance‑sheet risk
- Long‑term commodity cycle and dividend stability provide defensive attributes
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth14.10%
Profit Margin1.52%
P/E Ratio22.0
ROE9.50%
ROA3.03%
Debt/Equity105.06
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash FlowCN¥8.4B
Free Cash FlowCN¥5.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI37.9
SupportCN¥49.60
ResistanceCN¥60.30
MA 20CN¥55.08
MA 50CN¥56.49
MA 200CN¥36.74
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥30.26
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.17%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.25
Volatility67.02%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.