5838:TSERakuten Bank, Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-01 - not real-time
¥5,123.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Rakuten Bank’s shares are trading well below their short‑term and long‑term moving averages, indicating a technical weakness, while the RSI sits in a neutral zone and the MACD has turned bullish, suggesting a possible short‑term reversal. The price is hovering near a strong support level with resistance a modest distance away, and volume has been trending downward, adding to the bearish momentum signal.
On the fundamentals side, the company enjoys a P/E multiple that is comfortably lower than the sector average and a price‑to‑book ratio that reflects modest premium pricing, implying an undervalued valuation. Revenue growth is robust and operating margins are healthy, yet operating cash flow remains negative, highlighting a cash generation concern. Volatility is markedly high and the beta is sub‑one, pointing to a stock that swings sharply but is less correlated with market moves. Investor sentiment is at an extreme greed level, and analysts project a sizable upside, but the recent maximum drawdown underscores the downside risk. Overall, the blend of technical weakness, strong valuation metrics, and solid growth fundamentals creates a nuanced investment picture.
On the fundamentals side, the company enjoys a P/E multiple that is comfortably lower than the sector average and a price‑to‑book ratio that reflects modest premium pricing, implying an undervalued valuation. Revenue growth is robust and operating margins are healthy, yet operating cash flow remains negative, highlighting a cash generation concern. Volatility is markedly high and the beta is sub‑one, pointing to a stock that swings sharply but is less correlated with market moves. Investor sentiment is at an extreme greed level, and analysts project a sizable upside, but the recent maximum drawdown underscores the downside risk. Overall, the blend of technical weakness, strong valuation metrics, and solid growth fundamentals creates a nuanced investment picture.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- price near key support with bearish trend direction
- decreasing volume indicating weakening buying pressure
- MACD bullish crossover offering limited upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- undervalued valuation relative to industry peers
- strong revenue growth and healthy operating margins
- significant upside potential highlighted by analyst targets
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- strategic alliance and digital banking positioning
- sustained growth trajectory despite short‑term cash flow pressure
- low beta and strong brand resilience in the regional banking sector
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth27.70%
Profit Margin37.21%
P/E Ratio12.2
ROE20.29%
ROA0.46%
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow¥-1216589987840
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI47.8
Support¥4,688.00
Resistance¥5,416.00
MA 20¥5,072.30
MA 50¥5,530.88
MA 200¥6,856.39
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.05
Valuation
Target Price¥7,298.57
Upside/Downside42.47%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.81
Volatility78.51%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.