We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

5838:TSERakuten Bank, Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-01 - not real-time

¥5,123.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Rakuten Bank’s shares are trading well below their short‑term and long‑term moving averages, indicating a technical weakness, while the RSI sits in a neutral zone and the MACD has turned bullish, suggesting a possible short‑term reversal. The price is hovering near a strong support level with resistance a modest distance away, and volume has been trending downward, adding to the bearish momentum signal.
On the fundamentals side, the company enjoys a P/E multiple that is comfortably lower than the sector average and a price‑to‑book ratio that reflects modest premium pricing, implying an undervalued valuation. Revenue growth is robust and operating margins are healthy, yet operating cash flow remains negative, highlighting a cash generation concern. Volatility is markedly high and the beta is sub‑one, pointing to a stock that swings sharply but is less correlated with market moves. Investor sentiment is at an extreme greed level, and analysts project a sizable upside, but the recent maximum drawdown underscores the downside risk. Overall, the blend of technical weakness, strong valuation metrics, and solid growth fundamentals creates a nuanced investment picture.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price near key support with bearish trend direction
  • decreasing volume indicating weakening buying pressure
  • MACD bullish crossover offering limited upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • undervalued valuation relative to industry peers
  • strong revenue growth and healthy operating margins
  • significant upside potential highlighted by analyst targets

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • strategic alliance and digital banking positioning
  • sustained growth trajectory despite short‑term cash flow pressure
  • low beta and strong brand resilience in the regional banking sector

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth27.70%
Profit Margin37.21%
P/E Ratio12.2
ROE20.29%
ROA0.46%
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow¥-1216589987840
Industry P/E16.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI47.8
Support¥4,688.00
Resistance¥5,416.00
MA 20¥5,072.30
MA 50¥5,530.88
MA 200¥6,856.39
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.05

Valuation

Target Price¥7,298.57
Upside/Downside42.47%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.81
Volatility78.51%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.