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5832:TSEChugin Financial Group,Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time

¥3,103.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Chugin Financial Group’s stock is trading at 3,103 JPY, comfortably above its 20‑day (2,953 JPY) and 50‑day (2,942 JPY) simple moving averages and well within a bullish trend indicated by a MACD histogram of +23.8 and a MACD signal labeled bullish. The RSI sits at 58, suggesting momentum is still healthy without being overbought, while the beta of 0.18 points to low systematic risk despite a 30‑day volatility of 34 % that signals price swings. Volume has been decreasing, which tempers the bullish technical picture and adds a modest liquidity concern.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a forward P/E of 13.9, notably below the industry average of 16.75, and offers a dividend yield of 3.29 % with a payout ratio of just 40 %, indicating a sustainable income stream. Its balance sheet is strong, featuring abundant cash (≈975 bn JPY) and no equity‑based debt, while the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly 4,738 JPY suggests the stock is currently undervalued. The modest revenue growth (0.4 %) and solid operating margins further support a value‑oriented investment case.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and price above short‑term moving averages
  • Decreasing volume raising short‑term liquidity caution
  • Attractive dividend yield but limited upside in near term

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and industry P/E
  • Sustainable dividend with moderate payout ratio
  • Low beta indicating defensive profile for a 12‑24 month horizon

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong cash position and virtually no equity‑based debt
  • Stable earnings and consistent dividend policy
  • Regional banking sector’s steady demand and low geographic concentration

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth100.40%
Profit Margin23.98%
P/E Ratio13.9
ROE6.83%
ROA0.35%
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow¥70.9B
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI58.1
Support¥2,728.00
Resistance¥3,192.00
MA 20¥2,953.43
MA 50¥2,942.47
MA 200¥2,530.19
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair Value¥4,738.44
Target Price¥2,945.00
Upside/Downside-5.09%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.29%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.60
Volatility34.32%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.