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5401:TSENIPPON STEEL CORP. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-16 - not real-time

¥566.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading below its medium‑term and long‑term moving averages, signaling a bearish backdrop, while the RSI hovers in neutral territory and the MACD histogram has turned positive, hinting at a possible short‑term bounce. Volume has been tapering, and price sits near a recent resistance level, suggesting that any upward move will need fresh buying pressure.
Fundamental perspective: Valuation metrics such as price‑to‑book and price‑to‑sales are well beneath parity, and the discounted cash‑flow model points to a sizable upside relative to the current price. Forward earnings multiples are dramatically cheaper than trailing figures, yet the company carries a very high debt load, negative free cash flow and modest profitability. The announced multi‑billion‑dollar investment in U.S. operations could act as a catalyst for revenue growth and improve margin profile, while the dividend yield remains attractive but may be strained by cash constraints.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price near resistance with decreasing volume
  • positive MACD histogram suggesting limited upside
  • neutral momentum indicated by RSI

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • significant valuation gap between market price and DCF estimate
  • strategic U.S. investment poised to boost earnings
  • attractive dividend yield despite cash challenges

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • high debt burden and negative free cash flow
  • potential for improved profitability from new facilities
  • cyclical nature of the steel industry and environmental regulations

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth31.00%
Profit Margin0.17%
P/E Ratio175.2
ROE0.75%
ROA2.09%
Debt/Equity85.89
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash Flow¥716.9B
Free Cash Flow¥-458731257856

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI54.6
Support¥531.10
Resistance¥575.80
MA 20¥550.82
MA 50¥568.34
MA 200¥614.32
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.13

Valuation

Fair Value¥2,566.96
Target Price¥672.22
Upside/Downside18.77%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.24%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.44
Volatility25.67%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.