5201:TSEAGC Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
NT$40.15
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Price action: K WAY is trading at TWD 40.15, below its 20‑day SMA (40.53) and 50‑day SMA (43.25), which signals short‑term weakness, yet the MACD histogram has turned positive and the MACD signal is flagged bullish. Volume is rising, the nearest support sits at 38.35 and resistance at 43.85, and the RSI sits at a neutral 43.
Fundamentals: Revenue surged 44.6% YoY, but operating margin is negative (‑2.7%) and free cash flow is a large negative (‑285 M TWD). Debt‑to‑equity is high at 81%, and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100% (3.14% yield), raising sustainability concerns. The DCF‑derived fair value of 26.55 TWD is far below the current price, indicating the stock is likely overvalued despite a PE of 34 that is modestly lower than the industry average of 37.
Fundamentals: Revenue surged 44.6% YoY, but operating margin is negative (‑2.7%) and free cash flow is a large negative (‑285 M TWD). Debt‑to‑equity is high at 81%, and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100% (3.14% yield), raising sustainability concerns. The DCF‑derived fair value of 26.55 TWD is far below the current price, indicating the stock is likely overvalued despite a PE of 34 that is modestly lower than the industry average of 37.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support with bullish MACD crossover
- Increasing volume suggests renewed buying interest
- High short‑term volatility (≈38% 30‑day) limits upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth but negative operating cash flow
- Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity ≈ 81%) and unsustainable dividend payout
- Market price still well above DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value (≈26.5 TWD) indicates a sizable valuation gap
- Persistent cash‑flow deficit and high debt increase financial risk
- Dividend sustainability concerns and limited earnings visibility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth44.60%
Profit Margin13.53%
P/E Ratio34.0
ROE9.51%
ROA1.18%
Debt/Equity81.00
P/B Ratio3.0
Op. Cash FlowNT$39.3M
Free Cash FlowNT$-285773632
Industry P/E37.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI43.0
SupportNT$38.35
ResistanceNT$43.85
MA 20NT$40.53
MA 50NT$43.25
MA 200NT$42.29
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16
Valuation
Fair ValueNT$26.55
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.14%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.76
Volatility37.75%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.