4661:TSEOriental Land Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-21 - not real-time
¥2,735.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Oriental Land shows a mixed technical picture: the short‑term moving average sits above the medium‑term average, while the longer‑term average remains higher still, indicating a neutral trend. Momentum indicators are elevated, with the RSI in the high zone and a bullish MACD histogram, yet price is flirting with a key resistance level and volume is rising, suggesting caution.
Fundamentally, the company commands strong cash generation, a modest payout ratio, and a dividend that appears sustainable. Valuation metrics point to a price that is slightly below intrinsic estimates, offering limited upside, while earnings forecasts show improvement. The balance of solid cash flow, brand strength, and modest upside supports a buy stance for the medium horizon, but the near‑term overbought signals advise a watchful hold.
Fundamentally, the company commands strong cash generation, a modest payout ratio, and a dividend that appears sustainable. Valuation metrics point to a price that is slightly below intrinsic estimates, offering limited upside, while earnings forecasts show improvement. The balance of solid cash flow, brand strength, and modest upside supports a buy stance for the medium horizon, but the near‑term overbought signals advise a watchful hold.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- high RSI suggesting overbought conditions
- price approaching resistance
- increasing volume supporting liquidity
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF indicates modest upside
- forward earnings growth outpacing current earnings
- sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- strong brand partnership with Disney
- consistent cash flow generation
- stable earnings despite modest growth
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth0.10%
Profit Margin17.30%
P/E Ratio36.8
ROE11.73%
ROA6.82%
Debt/Equity29.70
P/B Ratio4.1
Op. Cash Flow¥181.3B
Free Cash Flow¥71.2B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI69.5
Support¥2,301.00
Resistance¥2,822.00
MA 20¥2,556.00
MA 50¥2,355.22
MA 200¥2,779.13
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.8
Valuation
Fair Value¥733.69
Target Price¥2,957.69
Upside/Downside8.14%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.59%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.14
Volatility30.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.