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4661:TSEOriental Land Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-21 - not real-time

¥2,735.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Oriental Land shows a mixed technical picture: the short‑term moving average sits above the medium‑term average, while the longer‑term average remains higher still, indicating a neutral trend. Momentum indicators are elevated, with the RSI in the high zone and a bullish MACD histogram, yet price is flirting with a key resistance level and volume is rising, suggesting caution.
Fundamentally, the company commands strong cash generation, a modest payout ratio, and a dividend that appears sustainable. Valuation metrics point to a price that is slightly below intrinsic estimates, offering limited upside, while earnings forecasts show improvement. The balance of solid cash flow, brand strength, and modest upside supports a buy stance for the medium horizon, but the near‑term overbought signals advise a watchful hold.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • high RSI suggesting overbought conditions
  • price approaching resistance
  • increasing volume supporting liquidity

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF indicates modest upside
  • forward earnings growth outpacing current earnings
  • sustainable dividend with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • strong brand partnership with Disney
  • consistent cash flow generation
  • stable earnings despite modest growth

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.10%
Profit Margin17.30%
P/E Ratio36.8
ROE11.73%
ROA6.82%
Debt/Equity29.70
P/B Ratio4.1
Op. Cash Flow¥181.3B
Free Cash Flow¥71.2B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI69.5
Support¥2,301.00
Resistance¥2,822.00
MA 20¥2,556.00
MA 50¥2,355.22
MA 200¥2,779.13
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.8

Valuation

Fair Value¥733.69
Target Price¥2,957.69
Upside/Downside8.14%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.59%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.14
Volatility30.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.