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4612:TSENippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-06 - not real-time

¥977.80

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading below its 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages, with an RSI hovering around the neutral 40‑level and a bearish MACD histogram, suggesting short‑term downside pressure. However, price remains comfortably above the identified support near ¥960, providing a modest cushion.
Fundamental outlook: Recent earnings calls highlight a >20% YoY revenue surge and a ~38% jump in operating profit, while the company maintains a solid gross margin of ~43% and an operating margin near 15%. The dividend yield of ~1.7% with a payout ratio under 30% appears sustainable given strong operating cash flow and a cash‑rich balance sheet, despite a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Analysts’ consensus is a “Buy” with a median price target of ¥1,100, implying upside potential relative to the current price.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support
  • Bearish MACD momentum
  • Attractive dividend yield

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong Q1 revenue and profit growth
  • Analyst price targets indicating upside
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Robust cash generation and low beta
  • Global diversification across automotive, industrial and decorative segments
  • Stable earnings margins and solid balance sheet

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Profit Margin10.52%
P/E Ratio18.2
ROE11.47%
ROA4.39%
Debt/Equity73.93
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow¥230.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI40.9
Support¥959.80
Resistance¥1,071.00
MA 20¥1,016.87
MA 50¥1,003.29
MA 200¥1,034.73
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index83.02

Valuation

Fair Value¥474.66
Target Price¥1,193.00
Upside/Downside22.01%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.74%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.29
Volatility27.14%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.