4540:TSETsumura & Co. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-27 - not real-time
¥3,847.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Tsumura & Co. trades at a PE of 10.2, well below the industry average of 27.4, and its price‑to‑book of 0.89 suggests a value tilt. The stock offers a generous dividend yield of 4.21% with a comfortable payout ratio of 39%, indicating dividend sustainability despite a negative free cash flow. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of ¥3,390 is below the current price of ¥3,847, and the company carries a high net‑debt position (total debt ¥135 bn vs cash ¥84 bn) that warrants caution.
On the technical side, the price sits above the 20‑day (¥3,732), 50‑day (¥3,768) and 200‑day (¥3,822) moving averages, and the MACD histogram is positive, signaling short‑term momentum. Yet the broader trend is flagged as bearish, with the price approaching the resistance level of ¥4,015 and volatility elevated at 22.6% (30‑day). A low beta of -0.08 indicates minimal market correlation, while the Fear & Greed Index at Extreme Greed reflects strong investor appetite.
On the technical side, the price sits above the 20‑day (¥3,732), 50‑day (¥3,768) and 200‑day (¥3,822) moving averages, and the MACD histogram is positive, signaling short‑term momentum. Yet the broader trend is flagged as bearish, with the price approaching the resistance level of ¥4,015 and volatility elevated at 22.6% (30‑day). A low beta of -0.08 indicates minimal market correlation, while the Fear & Greed Index at Extreme Greed reflects strong investor appetite.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and price above short‑term SMAs
- Approaching resistance at ¥4,015 with high volatility
- Low beta reducing market‑wide shock exposure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to industry PE and PB multiples
- Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
- Analyst target median price of ¥4,000 suggests ~3% upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High leverage and negative free cash flow present balance‑sheet risk
- Stable demand for Kampo and generic formulations
- Consistent dividend policy supports income‑focused investors
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth7.00%
Profit Margin14.60%
P/E Ratio10.2
ROE8.62%
ROA4.17%
Debt/Equity36.37
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow¥24.7B
Free Cash Flow¥-28687374336
Industry P/E27.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI56.6
Support¥3,513.00
Resistance¥4,015.00
MA 20¥3,731.95
MA 50¥3,768.02
MA 200¥3,821.69
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.29
Valuation
Fair Value¥3,390.56
Target Price¥4,350.00
Upside/Downside13.08%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.21%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.08
Volatility22.64%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.