4324:TSEDentsu Group Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-11 - not real-time
MYR 1.25
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad is trading at a **trailing P/E of 2.9**, dramatically below the industry average of ~22, and a **price‑to‑book of 0.52**, indicating a deep valuation gap. The DCF model suggests a fair value around **RM 17.1**, more than 13× the current price of RM 1.25, while revenue has surged **92.6% YoY** and the company posted a **record Q1 net profit of RM 525.6 million**, reversing a loss a year earlier. Despite thin margins (gross margin ~4% and profit margin ~2.8%), the earnings turnaround and ultra‑low multiples point to a potentially **undervalued** position with strong growth upside.
On the technical side, the stock sits above its 20‑day (RM 1.238) and 50‑day (RM 1.225) SMAs and is trending bullish, with a **MACD histogram turning positive** and a **neutral RSI around 50**, suggesting room for upside without immediate overbought pressure. Volume is rising, support sits at RM 1.14 and resistance at RM 1.39, while volatility is high at **63% over 30 days** and beta is slightly negative, indicating sensitivity to market swings but also a potential hedge. The combination of a strong earnings rebound, extreme‑greed market sentiment, and a massive valuation discount supports a **buy** stance, tempered by sector cyclicality and operational risk.
On the technical side, the stock sits above its 20‑day (RM 1.238) and 50‑day (RM 1.225) SMAs and is trending bullish, with a **MACD histogram turning positive** and a **neutral RSI around 50**, suggesting room for upside without immediate overbought pressure. Volume is rising, support sits at RM 1.14 and resistance at RM 1.39, while volatility is high at **63% over 30 days** and beta is slightly negative, indicating sensitivity to market swings but also a potential hedge. The combination of a strong earnings rebound, extreme‑greed market sentiment, and a massive valuation discount supports a **buy** stance, tempered by sector cyclicality and operational risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and price above short‑term SMAs
- Positive earnings surprise and profit swing
- Support level at RM 1.14 offering downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Large valuation gap to DCF fair value
- Sector cyclicality in oil & gas refining
- High volatility and moderate beta exposure
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF implied upside >1300% versus current price
- Sustained revenue growth and earnings turnaround
- Strategic position in Malaysia's refining market
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth92.60%
Profit Margin2.83%
P/E Ratio2.9
ROE35.87%
ROA8.05%
Debt/Equity88.01
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash FlowMYR348.2M
Free Cash FlowMYR308.0M
Industry P/E22.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI50.2
SupportMYR 1.14
ResistanceMYR 1.39
MA 20MYR 1.24
MA 50MYR 1.22
MA 200MYR 1.05
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.29
Valuation
Fair ValueMYR 17.13
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta-1.06
Volatility63.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.