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4203:TSESumitomo Bakelite Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time

¥7,897.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Sumitomo Bakelite is trading well above its intrinsic estimate, with the market price perched near the top of its 52‑week range. The technical backdrop shows a bullish MACD alignment but an RSI that has entered overbought territory, suggesting short‑term momentum may be exhausted. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid revenue expansion, healthy margins and a generous cash buffer, while maintaining a modest payout ratio that supports dividend sustainability.
Given the elevated valuation relative to fair value, investors should weigh the upside from continued earnings growth against the risk of a price correction, especially as market sentiment leans toward extreme greed.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD indicating lingering upward pressure
  • RSI in overbought zone signaling potential pullback
  • Price near resistance and above fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent double‑digit revenue growth
  • Strong cash position and manageable debt
  • Stable dividend yield with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Enduring demand for specialty chemicals and semiconductor materials
  • Robust free cash flow supporting future investments
  • Valuation gap that may require price moderation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth11.30%
Profit Margin8.76%
P/E Ratio24.7
ROE8.81%
ROA4.92%
Debt/Equity7.80
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow¥35.0B
Free Cash Flow¥12.6B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI76.9
Support¥6,018.00
Resistance¥7,985.00
MA 20¥6,776.80
MA 50¥6,172.00
MA 200¥5,440.44
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value¥4,150.46
Target Price¥6,836.67
Upside/Downside-13.43%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.56%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.78
Volatility44.15%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.