4203:TSESumitomo Bakelite Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time
¥7,897.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Sumitomo Bakelite is trading well above its intrinsic estimate, with the market price perched near the top of its 52‑week range. The technical backdrop shows a bullish MACD alignment but an RSI that has entered overbought territory, suggesting short‑term momentum may be exhausted. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid revenue expansion, healthy margins and a generous cash buffer, while maintaining a modest payout ratio that supports dividend sustainability.
Given the elevated valuation relative to fair value, investors should weigh the upside from continued earnings growth against the risk of a price correction, especially as market sentiment leans toward extreme greed.
Given the elevated valuation relative to fair value, investors should weigh the upside from continued earnings growth against the risk of a price correction, especially as market sentiment leans toward extreme greed.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD indicating lingering upward pressure
- RSI in overbought zone signaling potential pullback
- Price near resistance and above fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Consistent double‑digit revenue growth
- Strong cash position and manageable debt
- Stable dividend yield with low payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Enduring demand for specialty chemicals and semiconductor materials
- Robust free cash flow supporting future investments
- Valuation gap that may require price moderation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth11.30%
Profit Margin8.76%
P/E Ratio24.7
ROE8.81%
ROA4.92%
Debt/Equity7.80
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow¥35.0B
Free Cash Flow¥12.6B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI76.9
Support¥6,018.00
Resistance¥7,985.00
MA 20¥6,776.80
MA 50¥6,172.00
MA 200¥5,440.44
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
Fair Value¥4,150.46
Target Price¥6,836.67
Upside/Downside-13.43%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.56%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.78
Volatility44.15%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.