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4091:TSENippon Sanso Holdings Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-20 - not real-time

¥5,564.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Nippon Sanso is trading at ¥5,564, which sits below its 20‑day (¥5,735) and 50‑day (¥5,799) moving averages, while the 200‑day average remains supportive at ¥5,366. The RSI of 45 and a bearish MACD histogram (‑¥3.0) signal a neutral‑to‑slightly bearish short‑term outlook, compounded by decreasing volume and a high 30‑day volatility of roughly 49%. On the fundamentals side, the company posted 7.5% revenue growth, a solid 42.8% gross margin, and a 9.1% profit margin, delivering a healthy ROE of 11.2% and a modest dividend yield of 1.19% with a low payout ratio of 21.6%, indicating sustainable income. However, the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of nearly 70%, and net debt far exceeds cash, adding leverage risk. Analyst consensus targets around ¥6,100 suggest about 9% upside, aligning with a fair valuation despite the DCF‑derived fair value of ¥4,066. Overall, the stock appears fairly valued with a blend of growth and value attributes, offering modest dividend income while navigating moderate leverage and sector cyclicality.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term SMAs and bearish MACD
  • High recent volatility and decreasing volume
  • Proximity to recent support level at ¥5,164

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of 7.5% with strong margins
  • Analyst target price around ¥6,100 implying ~9% upside
  • Sustainable dividend yield and low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified global gas business with stable cash flows
  • Low beta (0.28) indicating defensive characteristics
  • Consistent earnings generation and dividend sustainability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.50%
Profit Margin9.11%
P/E Ratio19.4
ROE11.21%
ROA4.66%
Debt/Equity69.97
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow¥272.6B
Free Cash Flow¥136.7B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI45.2
Support¥5,164.00
Resistance¥6,509.00
MA 20¥5,734.55
MA 50¥5,798.84
MA 200¥5,366.31
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value¥4,066.40
Target Price¥6,106.25
Upside/Downside9.75%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.19%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.28
Volatility49.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.