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4013:TADAWULDr. Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services Group Co. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

SAR 217.80

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group is trading well below its short‑ and long‑term moving averages (20‑day SMA ~227, 50‑day SMA ~241, 200‑day SMA ~252) with a bearish MACD crossover and an RSI around 34, suggesting oversold conditions but a still‑negative momentum. Volatility is elevated at roughly 29% over the past 30 days and beta is effectively neutral, indicating price swings are driven more by company‑specific factors than market moves. The stock appears significantly overvalued relative to its discounted cash‑flow fair value (~120 SAR) and peers (PE ~32 vs industry ~27), while the dividend yield of 1.85% is backed by a 72% payout ratio despite negative free cash flow and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio above 100%. Recent expansion with the inauguration of a new day‑surgery centre in Dubai adds a growth catalyst, complementing an 8.8% revenue growth and strong ROE near 30%.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price below key moving averages and bearish MACD
  • high short‑term volatility
  • valuation gap versus DCF fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • steady revenue growth and expanding footprint in Dubai
  • attractive dividend yield despite leverage
  • moderate debt load relative to cash generation

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • strong ROE and consistent earnings growth
  • strategic expansion into new markets
  • potential for valuation convergence as market recognizes fundamentals

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.80%
Profit Margin16.79%
P/E Ratio32.5
ROE29.87%
ROA7.15%
Debt/Equity111.97
P/B Ratio9.6
Op. Cash FlowSAR3.7B
Free Cash FlowSAR-347297216
Industry P/E27.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI34.0
SupportSAR 211.70
ResistanceSAR 248.20
MA 20SAR 227.44
MA 50SAR 241.03
MA 200SAR 252.08
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.8

Valuation

Fair ValueSAR 120.42
Target PriceSAR 274.81
Upside/Downside26.17%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.85%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.05
Volatility28.58%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.