3968:HKEXChina Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. Class H Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-26 - not real-time
HK$49.42
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
At HKD 49.42, China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. shows no decisive moving-average alignment, leaving the trend neutral. It has gained 7.0% over the past 30 days. Momentum indicators put RSI at 57.9 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. Price has been bracketed by support at HKD 47.40 and resistance at HKD 51.45.
Valuation screens as undervalued: a P/E of 7.4 sits below the sector average of 17.1. Sell-side targets cluster 19.1% above the current quote. The 9.04% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 3 — low. With 30-day volatility of 19.4%, a beta of 0.30 and a maximum drawdown of 18.3%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on buy — conviction 7 out of 10.
Valuation screens as undervalued: a P/E of 7.4 sits below the sector average of 17.1. Sell-side targets cluster 19.1% above the current quote. The 9.04% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 3 — low. With 30-day volatility of 19.4%, a beta of 0.30 and a maximum drawdown of 18.3%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on buy — conviction 7 out of 10.
Top Market Events
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Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Trading above the 200-day average of 49.02
- MACD momentum is positive
- 30-day price change of +7.0%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 7.4 versus sector average of 17.1
- Trading above the 200-day average of 49.02
- Analyst targets imply +19.1% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 7.4 versus sector average of 17.1
- Analyst targets imply +19.1% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 50.4% is healthy
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth1.70%
Profit Margin50.45%
P/E Ratio7.4
ROE11.92%
ROA1.17%
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash FlowHK$482.3B
Industry P/E17.1
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI57.9
SupportHK$47.40
ResistanceHK$51.45
MA 20HK$49.09
MA 50HK$47.66
MA 200HK$49.02
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.43
Valuation
Fair ValueHK$228.14
Target PriceHK$58.84
Upside/Downside19.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield9.04%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.30
Volatility19.40%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.