3690:HKEXMeituan Class B Analysis

Technical outlook: Meituan is trading at HK$78.5, comfortably below its 20‑day SMA (HK$81.9), 50‑day SMA (HK$92.7) and 200‑day SMA (HK$108.5), signalling a bearish price trend. The 14‑day RSI of 36.4 hints at oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram has turned positive (+0.19) and the MACD line sits above the signal line, offering a tentative bullish signal. Immediate support sits around HK$73.6 with resistance near HK$94.5, framing the short‑term range.
Fundamental outlook: Revenue growth is flat at 2% and margins are deteriorating (operating margin –20%, profit margin –0.55%), with negative ROE and ROA. The trailing PE of 14.8 appears attractive, but the forward PE spikes to 37.5 as earnings are projected to halve, and the DCF‑derived fair value of HK$24.1 suggests a substantial valuation gap. The company carries a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 30.6% and pays no dividend despite holding HK$141.3B in cash. The recent acquisition of Dingdong’s fresh‑grocery platform adds a strategic growth catalyst, and analysts maintain a “buy” consensus with a median target of HK$123.7, implying upside of roughly 57%.