3690:HKEXMeituan Class B Analysis

Meituan (3690.HK) is trading at HK$73.45, well below its 20‑day (HK$82.06), 50‑day (HK$83.02) and 200‑day (HK$95.71) simple moving averages, indicating a pronounced bearish technical backdrop. The RSI of 29 signals that the stock is oversold, while a bearish MACD histogram (‑1.14) suggests momentum remains negative. Despite these pressures, the forward P/E of 13.9 and a projected upside of more than 50% (target median price HK$113) point to a potentially attractive valuation floor, especially as market sentiment sits at an “Extreme Greed” 94.07 on the Fear & Greed Index. Fundamentally, the company faces challenges – operating margins are –21.3% and cash flow is negative, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 57.4% and a max drawdown of over 50%, raising concerns about financial resilience. However, revenue is still growing modestly at 2.8% YoY and the forward EPS of HK$5.29 suggests earnings recovery may be on the horizon.
Given the increasing volume trend and a clear support level at HK$72.25, a short‑term bounce cannot be ruled out, yet the broader bearish trend and regulatory headwinds in China’s internet sector temper optimism. Over the medium to long term, the company’s strategic position in local commerce and the sizable upside implied by analyst targets could justify a buy stance, provided investors are comfortable with the elevated volatility (33% 30‑day) and the ongoing cash‑flow deficits.